A new study, published in the journal Science, tracked the domestic spread of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in January and concluded that 86% of early infections were not recorded. The researchers believe that only active identification and tracking of asymptomatic infections can play a crucial role in slowing the spread of the epidemic.
Research map – 1: Best fit model and sensitivity analysis.
The new study, which brings together scientists from Columbia University, Imperial College London, the University of California, Davis, and the University of Hong Kong, analyzed case reports from 375 cities across the country between January 10 and 23.
Using computer models to simulate the time-and-space spread of the virus, the team came to the conclusion that focusing only on the confirmed cases could not explain the spread of the new coronavirus in the country in January this year.
In fact, models show that 86% of those infected were not recorded during this time. Study co-author Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University’s School of Posts and Culture said:
The outbreak of COVID-19 in China is largely driven by undetected, or asymptomatic infected individuals.
Depending on the infection and number of tests detected, no cases have been detected that could expose a larger proportion of the population to threats.
In addition, we found that these asymptomatic infections are not only numerous, but also quite invisible and contagious, posing a major challenge in containing outbreaks.
Study Matching – 2: Effects of asymptomatic infections on THE spread of SARS-CoV-2.
The study adds that while these asymptomatic infections are less contagious than those diagnosed (estimated to be only about half of the infectious cases), they can lead to a subsequent 79% of documented cases.
Following strict controls in China, a second infection tracking simulation from January 24 to February 8 showed a significant reduction in the number of undocumented cases.
Clearly, this confirms the importance of implementing social alienation and extensive testing throughout the community.
Measures such as hygiene and travel restrictions have helped to reduce the overall number of infections, as awareness of prevention and control has increased, but it is unclear whether these actions will be sufficient to completely stop the spread of the new coronavirus.
Details of the study have been published in the recent journal Science. Originally published as:
“Cosi un documented infection sthes the rapid sphea’s rapid speight of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2))
Earlier, Imperial College London had launched a study on the infection of the COVID-19 virus based on data from February, which found that two-thirds of the world’s cases could go undetected.
This means that there are indeed many people who may be infected with COVID-19, but the spread of the virus is difficult to control or track due to mild or no obvious symptoms.
In whose latest media briefing, Director-General Tandeser reiterated two of the most important things at the moment: that everyone should be socially alienated and expand the scope of national testing.