U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday in the early hours of Monday morning Beijing time. In the first quarter, the Dow plunged more than 23 percent and the S.P. fell 20 percent, both of which were the biggest first-quarter declines in history. The market is still watching the u.S. outbreak and government response. The White House and Congressional Democrats are said to be preparing for a fourth round of stimulus. Trump called on Congress to introduce a $2 trillion infrastructure bill.
The Dow is down 410.32 points, or 1.84 percent, at 2,1917.16, the Nasdaq is down 74.05 points, or 0.95, at 7,700.10 and the Standard and Poor’s 500 index is down 42.06 points, or 1.60 percent, at 2,584.59.
All three major U.S. stock indexes suffered heavy losses in March and the first quarter:
1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13.74 per cent in March, its biggest monthly decline since October 2008, and fell 23.2 per cent in the first quarter, its biggest quarterly decline since 1987 and its biggest first-quarter decline in history.
2. The Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell 12.51 percent in March, its biggest monthly decline since 2008. The index fell 20 per cent in the first quarter, its biggest quarterly decline since 2008 and its biggest first-quarter decline in history.
3. The nasdaq fell 10.12 percent in March and 14.18 percent in the first quarter.
On the economic front, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 120 in March from 132.6 in February, but was well above what some analysts had expected to be 115.
Meanwhile, China’s purchasing managers’ index rebounded to 52 in March from a record low of 35.7 in February, as factories resumed production after months of shutdowns.
The global epidemic is spreading, and the United States has become the worst-affected country.
Investors are still keeping a close eye on the spread of the U.S. coronavirus pneumonia outbreak and the government’s response. According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University, as of 16:15 BST on March 31, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States had exceeded 164,000, ranking first in the world, and the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world had exceeded 788,000.
The United States has become the most affected country. Mr. Trump said Sunday that he hoped the United States “is on track for recovery” by June 1.
In New York State, the worst-hit state in the United States, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus pneumonia increased from 66,497 to 75,795. New York Governor Bill O’Moe said the coronavirus was “more dangerous than previously thought.”
Investors are pleased that the U.S. government is taking a more pragmatic approach to curbing the coronavirus epidemic. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced an extension of social distance until April 30 and abandoned plans to resume work before Easter. Many believe that, in the long run, the U.S. government’s approach will reduce economic losses.
Announcing late Sunday local time that he would extend the National Social Distance Guidelines to April 30, Mr. Trump advised most people to stay at home and avoid gathering more than 10 people, retracting what he had hoped the U.S. economy would restart before Easter.
Mr. Trump said the death rate from the new U.S. coronavirus could peak in two weeks, adding: “There’s nothing worse than declaring victory before you win.” “
As for the new U.S. pneumonia outbreak, U.S. President Donald Trump and many analysts in the market believe that the U.S. outbreak will turn a corner in mid-April, but Morgan Stanley is less optimistic. An analysis by the agency shows that the U.S. outbreak is growing at the fastest rate of any country in the same period, and that the trajectory may be worse than Italy’s.
A model developed by biotech analyst Matthew Harrison suggests that the U.S. will peak at about 570,000 cases in about 20 days, about three times the previously forecast peak of 200,000.
The U.S. economy is in a state of disarray due to the severe impact of the outbreak, and economic data in the second quarter are likely to deteriorate sharply, especially in terms of employment data. Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to contract by 34 per cent in the second quarter, compared with its previous estimate of 24 per cent.
Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and a former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, believes the U.S. economy will be in its worst recession since World War II.
U.S. government and Congress discuss fourth round of stimulus, Trump calls on Congress to introduce $2 trillion infrastructure bill
The White House and Congressional Democrats are preparing for a fourth round of stimulus, possibly worth as much as $600 billion, to help the U.S. weather the coronavirus crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.
White House officials have compiled a list of requests from government agencies totalling about $600 billion, people familiar with the matter said. These proposals include more state assistance and financial assistance to the mortgage market and tourism.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters that the focus of the fourth round of the stimulus bill will be on economic recovery, and that Democrats are “gathering information and taking stock” of information that might be needed for another round of stimulus. She also said state and local governments needed more federal aid and said they might send more money directly to the average American.
Another possible move, Pelosi said, would be to lift the cap on state and local tax cuts, which are part of the 2017 tax reform and affect Pelosi’s home state of California and New York.
Pelosi said lawmakers would reassess Trump’s response to the crisis and believe more U.S. elections will have to be voted on by mail.
Many of Pelosi’s priorities in the fourth round of stimulus were part of an alternative stimulus bill introduced by House Democrats last week, but were rejected by Senate leaders in negotiations with the Trump administration.
McConnell, the Republican leader in the U.S. Senate, said he would need to “wait and see” whether the fourth round of the stimulus bill is necessary.
Mr. Trump also said Tuesday that it was time to introduce “significant and aggressive” infrastructure legislation. He called for a $2 trillion infrastructure bill on Capitol Hill.
Fed launches temporary buyback mechanism to provide dollars to foreign central banks
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced a temporary buyback facilitation operation with foreign central banks to provide buyback facilities to foreign central banks with accounts opened at the Fed in New York.
The Fed also said it would set up a temporary repurchase agreement (FIMA) arrangement for foreign and international monetary authorities to help support the smooth running of financial markets such as the Treasury market, thereby maintaining credit supplies to U.S. households and businesses.
In the announcement, the Fed noted that the FIMA repurchase arrangement would allow FIMA account holders, including central banks and other international monetary authorities with accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to enter into repurchase agreements with the Fed. In these deals, the new agreement would allow foreign central banks to use their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to acquire dollars for use within their jurisdiction.
The Fed is providing u.S. dollar-denominated banking services to FIMA account holders, which will begin on April 6 and will last for at least six months,media reported.
Adam Button, an analyst at Fore Live, said the Fed had set up the swaps in the hope that foreign creditors would stop selling U.S. assets and stop selling Treasury bonds or other dollar-denominated assets.
The United States is a huge net debtor with $7 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt. Foreign creditors have about $39 trillion in U.S. assets, while Americans have only $28 trillion in foreign assets.
Has the market bottomed out? Analysts have their own opinions
“I think the market has built some kind of bottom,” said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. I don’t know if this is like the bottom of the stock market in October 2008, we still have a lot of important work to do. “
He noted that U.S. stocks managed to rebound at the end of the month, despite worrying data from last week’s record initial jobless claims and yesterday’s weaker-than-expected Dallas Fed manufacturing index. “If the stock market can bounce back when bad news comes out, then I think it suggests that the stock market may have bottomed out,” he said. “
According to Morgan Stanley’s assumption, the stock market will not fall to a near-term low any time soon. Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief US equity strategist, said that while stocks usually test lows again, markets will not confirm the bottom. But this time it is different because there have been forced closings in every corner of the market, including systemic strategies and passive, active and retail investors.
“A new round of forced closings is needed to hit new lows,” Morgan Stanley said. But this phase may not happen again. “
Many in the market believe that the U.S. stocks will encounter more sell-offs, it is possible to bottom out. Historically, stocks have often rebounded sharply during bear market downturns.
Credit Suisse said investors were using the rally to redeploy hedges rather than chase gains, a sign of a lack of confidence in the rally.
Mark Hackett, head of institutional investment research at Nationwide, said: “It is really gratifying that US equity pressure scored double-digit gains last week. But the bottom of the market is rarely as straightforward as it is now. Investors need to take a closer look at the traditional trading performance of the stock market before they can be sure that the market has established a bottom. “
Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said: “We expect the market to remain highly volatile until liquidity, credit and health risks are clearly eliminated. As the United States embarks on major policy stimulus, we expect tough health and social news to dominate the market in the coming weeks. “
Johnson and Johnson announced that its experimental vaccine for the new coronavirus will begin human testing in September and could be granted an emergency use authorization in early 2021.
Johnson and Johnson said it had pledged to work with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) federal Advanced Biomedical Research and Development Authority to work on vaccine research. Development and clinical trials provide more than $1 billion in funding.
Ford has indefinitely delayed plans to resume production in North America.
BioTech said the new coronavirus vaccine program, BNT162, will enter clinical trials in April 2020.
Nio Senior Vice President Huang Chendong will leave, its electric power engineering division is facing restructuring, more than 200 employees were diverted to different lines of business.
Some long-term investors in Ping Duo duo agreed to buy a total of $1.1 billion in new Class A common stock through a private placement.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. plans to buy at least 10 percent of Yunda Holdings Ltd. , according to people familiar with the matter.
European stocks closed broadly higher on Tuesday, with Germany’s DAX up 1.28 per cent at 9,942, Britain’s FTSE 100 up 1.85 per cent at 5,666 and France’s CAC 40 up 0.40 per cent at 4,396.
WTI crude for May delivery rose 39 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $20.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures fell more than 54% in March, the biggest monthly decline in history. WTI crude fell 66% in the first quarter, the biggest quarterly decline in history.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $46.60, or 2.8 percent, to $1,596.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 1.6 per cent in March.
Gold futures rose 1.9 per cent in March on the most active basis. Gold futures rose 4.8 per cent in the first quarter.
Silver futures for May rose 2.4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $14.156 an ounce. Silver futures fell 14 percent in March and 21 percent in the first quarter, according to the most active contracts.
Crude oil futures edged higher Tuesday. But in March, crude oil futures fell more than 50 percent as the coronavirus outbreak dampened the outlook for demand for crude oil, and Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a price war for market share, leaving the supply of crude oil in surplus.
WTI crude for May delivery rose 39 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $20.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures fell more than 54% in March, the biggest monthly decline in history.
WTI crude fell 66% in the first quarter, the biggest quarterly decline in history.