First quarter mobile phone shipments “chaos”: optimistic and pessimistic who should believe in who?

Thanks to Sun Yongjie for his delivery.

Recently, different statistical agencies have released the first quarter of this year’ global, China, India and other markets mobile phone shipments report, because of the special causes of the outbreak, the quarterly report is quite interesting. But when we looked at the reports, there were many very different results.

China Market: Nearly 25 million sales difference?

From the statistics agencies that are currently publishing first-quarter sales of China’s smartphone market, they include two foreign statistical agencies, Canalys and Counterpoint, as well as CINNO Research, a Chinese statistical agency, and the China Xintong Research Institute.

Let’s first look at the statistics of the two foreign statistical agencies on the Chinese smartphone market as a whole. China’s smartphone market shipped 72.6 million units in the first quarter, down 18 percent from a year earlier, and Counterpoint reported a 22 percent year-on-year decline because of the number of shipments, according to Canalys.

Looking at the statistics of domestic statistical agencies, the overall shipment volume of CINNO Research was 50.6 million units, down 44.5% YoY, while the overall shipment volume of Xintong Institute was 47.736 million units, down 34.7% YoY.

I do not know what the industry through the above statistics see? What we see is a huge difference between foreign statistics and domestic statistical agencies on the performance of China’s overall smartphone market.

To reflect the differences more intuitively, we compare the volume of the withdrawal and the peak (highest and lowest) year-on-year respectively. By shipment, Canalys shipments are 1.52 times that of the Xintong Institute, the gap between the two sides is 24.86 million units (nearly 25 million units), do not look down on the gap of 24.86 million units, this figure has accounted for the first quarter of this year’s China’s smartphone market in the first quarter of all shipments. At year-on-year growth, CINNO Research’s year-on-year decline was 2.47 times that of Canalys.

It is precisely because of the huge difference in overall market statistics, resulting in large differences in shipment statistics between manufacturers. We take Huawei, the number one in China’s smartphone market, as an example, starting with absolute shipments (still calculated and compared according to statistical peaks), cINNO Research (5060×49%) and Canalys 5.306 million units, respectively, the gap of 21% and 17.6% of Huawei’s shipments statistics, respectively, accounting for 21% and 17.6% of the total 24.86 million units. , is absolutely not to be ignored.

It should be noted that this statistical gap is still in the case of Huawei in both sides of the statistics accounted for the proportion of all shipments. If we calculate by peak of both statistics, for example, canalys has a maximum volume of 72.6 million and CINNO Research has a maximum market share of 49% and the overall lowest shipment of 47.736 million and the lowest market share of Counterpoint statistics are 39%, the statistical gap between the high and low standards is as high as 16.95 million units.

In addition, cINNO Research, although it did not specify figures for year-on-year growth, said in its explanation of sales that Huawei was down sharply year-on-year. There was also a big gap between the statistics of the two foreign agencies, with Counterpoint’s 6% year-on-year growth and Canalys’ 1% year-on-year growth, but The Year-on-Year Growth rate for Huawei phones counted by Counterpoint was six times that of Canalys.

Of course, we are not here to say that statistical agencies have a tendency to some manufacturers, but domestic statistical agencies are too pessimistic and foreign statistical agencies are too optimistic is certainly there, but close to 25 million units, has exceeded the netthrough institute statistics of the overall sales gap of half, even if the industry often said that shipments and real sales statistics gap, is enough to prove that China’s smartphone market is really not optimistic.

Indian market: increase or decrease? Can Xiaomi and OV really take advantage of the Indian market?

In addition to the Chinese market, china’s handset makers Xiaomi and OV have made India an important part of their overseas markets and will play a significant role in the performance of their global markets.

From the current public statistics, only Canalys and Counterpoint published the first quarter of this year’s Indian smartphone market more detailed statistics, from the overall market performance, Canalys statistics of shipments of 33.5 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year; Although there is a nearly twice the gap in year-on-year growth, the margin of error should fall within the margin of error, given that the overall shipment gap is only 2.5 million units, accounting for only about 7.4% and 8% of their respective overall shipments.

But when we subdivided shipments into major vendors, there were doubts. It should be noted that since Counterpoint only reported overall market sales and market share of major vendors, we calculated the sales figures of the major vendors, 9.3 million units, 5.27 million units of Xiaomi, 5.27 million units for Samsung, 4.96 million units for Samsung, 4.34 million units for Realme and 3.72 million units for OPPO. When compared with sales figures published by Canalys, the difference was 1 million units, with an error of 10.7 percent, the vivo was 1.43 million units, the error was 27.1 percent, Samsung had 1.34 million units with a 27 percent error, REALME was 440,000 units with a 11.3 percent error, and THE REALPO OP was 220,000 units with a margin of error of 6.3 percent.

Through the above comparison, we can easily find that both sides of Xiaomi, REALME, OPPO shipments of statistical errors are about 10%, only for vivo and Samsung statistical error close to 30%, this ratio is far beyond the scope of normal statistical error, and to some extent will determine the manufacturer’s ranking in the Indian market.

It is worth noting that the 27% error from Vivo and Samsung has far exceeded the overall canalys and Counterpoint shipments of 7.4% and 8% of the margin of error, and from the absolute gap between vivo and Samsung is 2.77 million units, more than the two statistical agencies in the overall market of 2.5 million units, there will certainly be one side of the vivo and Samsung shipments of the existence or recordless situation.

In addition, it is important to note that, in addition to Canalys and Counterpoint, another statistics agency, SA, also released its first-quarter report on India’s smartphone market, but did not disclose details, saying only that overall shipments were down about 3% year-on-year, and if so, the same year-on-year increase from the highest 11% reported by Canalys was a qualitative difference.

However, Canalys has previously reported a 4.2 per cent fall in India’s smartphone market for the year-on-year, and at best 3.2 per cent year-on-year. Market research firm Counterpoint Research also expects India’s blockade to cause shipments in India’s mobile phone market to fall by nearly 60 per cent in the second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. But the sales reports they each released in the first quarter of this year are very different. Perhaps this year manufacturers and statistics agencies are playing the final madness of the digital game in The Indian smartphone market.

The truth is that india’s smartphone market shipped near zero in the past April, thanks to a city closure order launched by the end of March.

In response, Tarun Pathak, deputy director of Counterpoint Reasearch, said: “Due to uncertainty, India shipped zero smartphones in April. And as the blockade enters May, the second quarter of 2020 will be a real challenge for India’s smartphone makers. “

Manu Kumar Jain, Xiaomi’s global vice president and head of India’s business, also posted on the social platform that April 2020 was an incredible month, as for the first time in more than 20 years, all smartphone makers have become India’s number one smartphone brand. The reason is simple: every manufacturer’s revenue is the same – sales are 0.

So it will be hard for Xiaomi and Ovs, who are expected to rely on India’s mobile phone market to make up for the decline in the Chinese market, will have a hard time repeating the backlash this year.

Global Markets: From 9% to -19.9%, Is Xiaomi, OV Avs or Storms?

It was the “chaos” of the two global smartphone markets, China and India, that led to the statistics of the statistics for the first quarter of this year’s global smartphone market. Especially for Xiaomi, OV, in the Chinese market slump and India market statistics doubt, there are still two very different statistical results of optimism and pessimism.

It should be noted that in our careful study of the current statistics, including IDC, Canalys, Counterpoint, SA, Omida, which have released the first quarter of this year’s global smartphone shipments statistics found that they are very close to Samsung, Huawei shipments and year-on-year growth statistics, but for Xiaomi and OV statistics there are optimistic and pessimistic two camps, and the gap is larger.

Let’s take a look at the statistics of the optimistic IDC and Canalys, which show that Xiaomi shipped 29.5 million and 30.2 million units, respectively;

The pessimists were Counterpoint and Omida, with 29.7 million and 25.3 million units of xiaomi, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.8% and -8.2%, respectively, and 21.6 million units and 19.5 million units for vivo, respectively, and -9.6% and -19.9% year-on-year, respectively.

This compares the peak shipments of millet and vivo (the highest and lowest statistics), with a gap of 4.9 million and 5.3 million units, respectively, accounting for 19.3% and 27.1% of the lowest shipments, also beyond the normal margin of error.

Careful readers here may find that in the optimistic IDC and Canalys statistics, vivo is in the global top 5, while the pessimistS’ Counterpoint and Omida statistics, opPO replaced, and OPPO is in terms of shipments fell 13.2% and 19.2% year-on-year, respectively, without the sub-brand REALME.

In fact, in addition to Counterpoint and Omida, it is similar in SA’s statistics, namely OPPO ranked fifth without sub-brand REALME and a 11% year-on-year decline. As for Xiaomi’s statistics, shipments were 27.5 million units, an increase of 0% year-on-year.

Here we briefly summarize that of the five agencies that publish global smartphone shipments, three of the statistics for Xiaomi are year-on-year, with a growth range of 6.1% to 9%;

It should be noted that the three statistical agencies that failed to list vivo as the top 5 were replaced by OPPO, with an annual growth range of -11%-19.2% (all excluding sub-brand REALME).

To further analyze Xiaomi and Vivo’s first-quarter shipments to the only mobile phone manufacturers, we chose Canalys statistics to see how many phones Xiaomi and vivo need to sell in other overseas markets and year-on-year growth in other overseas markets to achieve Canalys’ goal of 9% and 3% year-on-year growth in global markets.

According to Canalys, Xiaomi’s overseas sales in the first quarter of 2019, excluding China and India, were 7.8 million units, and if shipments in the first quarter of this year were up 9% year-on-year, overseas sales (excluding China and India) should be 12.1 million units, a growth rate of 55.1% year-on-year;

It is well known that Xiaomi is a major overseas market in Europe, in addition to China and India, but what is now known is that shipments in the western European smartphone market fell by about 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, while in Europe, IDC gave an optimistic forecast of 2.7% year-on-year growth in November, and a gloomy forecast of a 47.1% year-on-year decline. In this case, Xiaomi can really buck the trend to achieve up to 55% year-on-year growth?

Looking at vivo, in addition to China and India, Southeast Asia is the main overseas market, but in the past, Southeast Asia smartphone market is usually no matter how large, or growth is far less than the Indian market, then in this year’s adverse market environment in the face of the epidemic, the overall market performance in Southeast Asia can surpass the Indian market has considerable variables, and in this case, vivo can achieve 35% year-on-year growth is equally challenging.

To sum up, we believe that because of the special reasons of the epidemic, the statistical agencies for the first quarter of this year China, India and even the global smartphone market statistics how a “mess” word, which is mixed with more subjective things, and show a clear optimism and pessimism, which is closer to the objective facts? Perhaps only the manufacturers and market statistics agencies in the digital game know best. So here’s the question, who are we supposed to believe? In the extraordinary period, we tend to be pessimistic, after all, to do the worst of the plan, to the best of efforts, is the most rational way to deal with the enterprise.