In a recent note to investors, an analyst at Morgan Stanley said six new coronavirus candidatevaccines had been identified as the most likely success,media BGR reported. The shortlist includes familiar companies and research institutions such as Moderna, Oxford University and BioNTech. The labs are already conducting promising human trials, and the drug could be approved later this year. In addition, other candidate vaccines from Johnson and Johnson and Sanofi are likely to be completed by the end of 2021.
Even if the vaccine is ready to be produced as soon as this fall, it will take years for it to be widely used. As Bill Gates explained in a recent speech, the production and distribution of up to 7 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine requires resources, time, and strategies to ensure that the drug is available worldwide. Gates said he expects more than one of several COVID-19 vaccine candidates funded by his foundation to be approved.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, recently said he hoped to develop the first vaccine as early as early 2021, but he explained in a paper that a single vaccine candidate is not enough for the world to be able to. As many as six vaccines are thought to be likely to succeed, which is good news. But, as before, there is no guarantee that these drugs will perform as well in humans as they do in animals or in the lab. Vaccines must be both effective and safe, which is why so many stages of human trials are needed.
Analyst Matthew Harrison said in a note that millions of doses of vaccines could be available this fall and more than 1 billion doses of vaccines will be available next year. He singled out six drugs as the most promising, including four that are already in clinical trials and two candidates that are still in the clinical preclinical stage.
The four vaccines currently being tested are not surprising. What we saw was the mRNA vaccine for Moderna, the first vaccine to go into human trials. Then there’s the Oxford University vaccine, which has done well in monkeys and has made good progress in humans, with promising results. BioNTech’s gene vaccine has also been triald in Germany and the United States in recent weeks in partnership with Pfizer. There are also CanSino trials in China and Canada. The analysts believe all four vaccines are likely to be available later this year.
Johnson and Johnson’s candidate vaccine sits on the market in the first half of 2021, while Sanofi’s vaccine with GlaxoSmithKline is likely to be approved in the second half of 2021. The following table lists all of these potential COVID-19 vaccines, highlighting the vaccine platform, current status, and initial production capacity.
These are estimates based on the progress of all six current vaccine candidates and are likely to change in the coming months. Morgan Stanley acknowledges that clinical data are still needed and that even if it is available, it may be difficult to judge. The analyst said it would compare neutralizing antibody levels obtained in vaccinated volunteers with antibody titration obtained by animal models and COVID-19 survivors.
The analyst also said NIAID may be working to establish neutralizing antibody titer thresholds to provide protection against the disease. The data is likely to be released before the first vaccines are released.
The study says the coronavirus pandemic market could be worth $10 billion to $30 billion, while the epidemic has a $2 billion to $25 billion chance.