With a repeat, there is only a 33% chance that life on Earth will succeed.

BEIJING, May 20 (Xinhua) — According tomedia reports, the latest research by scientists shows that the evolution of life on Earth has overcome many difficulties. Scientists at Columbia University in the United States mathematically analyzed all current research data to determine that if Life on Earth were to start over from a planet with the same environmental conditions, the probability of their evolution would be only 33 percent, with a lower probability of evolutionary success for higher intelligent species.

With a repeat, there is only a 33% chance that life on Earth will succeed.


Scientists have created a complex mathematical model that contains a known timeline of life during the formation of the Earth, and the study, published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that if the history of Earth’s biological evolution is reopened, advanced intelligent species such as humans cannot be allowed to reappear.

Based on the time of the occurrence of microfossils in geological records, the study found that under the same environmental conditions, the probability of Earth life evolving again was 33%. If we use more controversial evidence that life evolved earlier, the probability of Earth life evolving on another planet of the same condition increased to 90 percent, suggesting that there might be some form of life in the universe.

Moreover, if we re-run the biological evolutionary clock and the bio-appearing window, there will be two possible outcomes, and higher intelligent civilizations could last 5 billion years or not.

Our results suggest that the evolution of higher intelligent life is not inevitable, with the earliest primitive life forms on Earth occurring 190 million years after the livable environment, about 4.2 billion years ago. This period was the most primitive period of the Earth, the period of Pluto, from 4.6 billion to 4 billion years ago, during which the Earth’s surface was frequently hit by asteroids, and the Earth’s atmosphere was dense and toxic.

Although life can evolve early, it has been billions of years before higher multicellular life is formed, and this study shows that the likelihood of this critical time jump occurring is very low. This means that higher intelligent life is very rare, and even if life is livable like Earth, the emergence of higher intelligent species is not an inevitable event.

The new study is only for The Earth, and scientists have so far not had enough data on other planets, and we cannot provide definitive conclusions, only statistical analysis of biological evolutionary events based on Earth. But the good news is that the universe seems to be full of life, and we cannot give up exploring extraterrestrial civilizations in the universe.