Everything about the new coronavirus is changing every day, but the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must do everything it can to provide the best data for public health officials and researchers,media BGR reported. As a result, the agency has developed five COVID-19 pandemic planning programmes, four of which “represent the lower and upper limits of disease severity and viral transmission”. “At the same time, the fifth scenario “represents the best estimate of severity and transmission at this time”.
According to the fifth scenario, which is currently based on the best estimates of available data, 35% of the new coronavirus infections are asymptomatic. This helps explain why the new coronavirus spreads so quickly — many infected people don’t even know they’re infected with COVID-19. In addition, the CDC estimates that 0.4 percent of people who are infected and have symptoms will die, about four times the rate of flu mortality.
There are a number of notes about these situations, including this one disclosed by the CDC. “The purpose of these situations is to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. As we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19, the parameter values in each scenario will be updated and increased over time. “
U.S. medical experts and local governments need operational data as they try to safely reopen their cities and states. The CDC hopes these situations can be used to help make decisions. The only problem is that not everyone is excited about the CDC’s estimates shared with the public. Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington, told CNN that while many of the numbers are “reasonable, the mortality estimate is too low.” Even in the worst-case scenario — the virus has more spread and the disease is more serious — the CDC puts the case death rate at just 1%.
“The estimate of the number of people infected in places like New York City is a far cry from those estimates,” Bergstrom said. “Let’s remember that the number of deaths in New York City is far higher than we expected, if every adult and child in this city is infected with a flu-like virus. This is not the flu. This is COVID. “
“In my opinion, the ‘best estimate’ is extremely optimistic, and the ‘worst case’ is quite optimistic, even as the best estimate. He added. “Of course people have to think about worse situations. Although the CDC has repeatedly stated that these programs are not a prediction of how the pandemic will develop, they “significantly underestimate mortality” compared to the current scientific consensus, which Bergstrom calls “a very problematic problem.”