The second-highest rate of death from new crown virus infection in the United States may not be as high as the first, researchers said recently, according tomedia BGR. On July 9, local time, the United States reported more than 60,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, a record number of new confirmed cases in a single day. The number of new confirmed cases in the U.S. has surged for about a month, but according to the latest data, mortality rates have been steadily declining throughout June and July.
As Business Insider pointed out earlier this week, the university’s latest projections from the Institute for Health Indicators and Assessments (IHME) suggest that a second spike in new u.S. infections is not as deadly as the first. There are many explanations for this, including the increased testing capacity leading to more confirmed cases of mild or asymptomatic, and the significant decline in the median age of infected people. Younger, healthy people are far less likely to develop severe symptoms or die from COVID-19 than older people.
For all these reasons and more, the IHME model now predicts that 20,8255 Americans will die from COVID-19 by November 1. As of 10 July, 133,079 people had died from the disease. That’s the current trajectory, but as long as the universal mask policy is enacted, the death toll is expected to fall to around 160,000 on the same day.
In addition, it is worth noting that cases are detected much earlier than three months ago, and it may take days or weeks for infected patients to begin to show signs of disease. With more knowledge, experience, and even potential life-saving drugs, doctors may be more able to treat PATIENTs with COVID in March or April, but it is only a matter of time before the death toll starts to rise if there is nowhere to go. In fact, after the death toll of about 260 on the 4 July weekend hit bottom, the death rate appears to be on the rise.
“No one wants to say too early that the death toll has not risen. It’s really a mistake,” Dr. Howard Koh of Harvard University told Business Insider. “If someone gets infected, then there’s a risk of illness, hospitalization, and death — the whole trajectory takes at least a few weeks, maybe a month or more.”