Today is another holiday. However, many people may not know much about this festival. World Population Day! You may think that the size of the population has little to do with yourself, but a recent graph of demographics has attracted public attention. This data map shows that the number of people after 80, 90, 00, 10, each era is rapidly declining compared to the previous year.
Among them, the most interesting point is: 00 than after 90 less than 47 million!
Is negative population growth really coming? Let’s focus on population.
After 00, the new population is falling sharply? What is the trend of demographic change?
It should be said that the decline in population trends is correct.
As can be seen from the Chinese age pyramid chart in Figure 1, the 1980s were the peak of births, with the number of births declining in the 90s, 00s and 10s. Among them, after 90 significantly less than 80, after 00 is also significantly less than 90 after. However, the specific number of no standard answer, affected by the statistical calibre and birth registration and other issues.
Using the 2010 census 10-19 years of age minus the population aged 0-9 years, the above figures, to get 28.38 million, plus the death factor, after 00 than after 90 about 30 million less reliable, probably not as high as 47 million.
Will 2027 really see negative population growth?
China’s entry into a negative growth society is certain, with differing views at the point of time.
Why does Chinese have negative growth? The first thing to do is to understand the two concepts of demography.
First, the total fertility rate.
Total fertility (TFR) is the most representative indicator of a country’s fertility level, also refers to the number of children in a family.
The demographic study found that TFR 2.1 is the replacement level, i.e. the number of the previous and next generations is basically equal, and if this level is maintained for a long time, the size of the population will remain stable. China’s total fertility rate in the 1950s and 1960s was more than 5, which vividly reflected the phenomenon of family having many children at that time.
The other is population inertia.
Refers to the accumulation of a kind of energy in the momentum of population development.
If the total fertility rate continues to be above 2.1, the population will grow steadily and accumulate positive inertia, and if the combined fertility rate remains below 2.1, negative inertia will accumulate, and after positive inertia is released, negative inertia will continue to function and a country will remain in negative growth for a long time.
Since the 1990s, china has been continuous for nearly 30 years, with a total fertility rate below 2.1 (see figure 2, red line of 2.1), and negative population growth is inevitable.
Figure 2: China’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 1950-2010 Source: Total Fertility Data, Calendar Years
Previously, scholars have judged that the Chinese peaked around the mid-20s and 30s, followed by long-term negative growth. Recent studies have concluded that Chinese peak in 2026 or 2027.
What are the factors influencing the negative population growth?
Demography has a well-known demographic balance equation, i.e. total population at the end of the year – total population at the beginning of the year plus (number of births in the year – number of deaths throughout the year) and (annual number of people moving in – number of people moving in throughout the year).
From this equation, it can be seen that the population is mainly affected by birth, death, migration and emigration.
Considering that the mortality rate in China is relatively stable and the impact of moving out is small, the main reason for the negative growth of the Chinese is due to the decline in the birth population and the decline in the birth rate due to the decline in the fertility level of women of childbearing age.
The existing group of childbearing age can be divided into two categories from the point of view of fertility, the first category is to want to have a baby but can not give birth, the second category is not want to have or do not want to have more lives.
The first category shows that in recent years, the rate of infertility in China has continued to rise, nearly 15% of the families in large cities have this problem;
There are many factors that affect the willingness to bear children, summarized as: the high cost of child-rearing, the increase in the number of years of education leading to late marriage and late childbearing, the increase of female independence leads to the increase of unmarried proportion, marriage and children are no longer the birth culture changes that life must experience.
Why should we worry about the decline of so many people in China?
China is a large country with a large population and is currently the largest in the world. But the main concern is in demographics, especially age structures.
The population dependency ratio is the ratio of the non-working age population (0-14 years of age, the population of the elderly aged 65 years) to the number of working-age population (population aged 15-64 years), expressed as a percentage, representing how much of the non-working-age population is to be borne by every 100 working-age populations.
The smaller the coefficient, the lighter the dependency on a country or region. Demography refers to the total dependency ratio below 50% as the “low dependency ratio”, and studies show that the period of low dependency ratio is the “golden age” of the age structure of the population, which is conducive to socio-economic development and provides a “demographic dividend”.
As can be seen from Figure 3, china’s total dependency ratio began to be less than 50% in 1990, entering the “demographic dividend period”, and by 2030 or so, the “demographic dividend period” will end.
The current increase in labor costs, recruitment difficulties, etc. are the direct response to this trend. Long-term low fertility will lead to the aging of young children, the problem of aging is a long-term problem facing China.
How should our country cope with population decline?
High lying, but not panic.
Build a fertility-friendly society and advocate that everyone should give birth according to policy. Actively changing the mode of economic growth, increasing human capital input, improving the efficiency of labor output, etc. are effective methods. Population reproduction is different from material reproduction, its impact will not be immediate, but to stand at a strategic height, long-term planning.
Expert: Ma Xiaohong, Professor, Beijing Population and Social Development Research Center, Beijing Party School