BEIJING, July 21 (Xinhua) — According tomedia reports, researchers said the decline in global fertility will have a “shocking” impact on society, but the community is not ready to respond. The decline in fertility means that by the end of the century almost every country will have a different degree of population decline, including Spain and Japan, 23 countries may have a population reduction by half by 2100.
Researchers at the Institute of Health Directiveing and Evaluation at the University of Washington say the global fertility rate will fall to 2.4 in 2017 and is expected to fall to 1.7 by 2100.
The population of all countries of the world will also age rapidly, with the number of older persons over 80 expected to be close to that of infants and young children.
What the hell is going on?
The fertility rate, which is the average number of children born to a woman, is currently on a downward trend, and if the fertility rate is below 2.1, the population as a whole will decline. In 1950, a woman gave birth an average of 4.7 children in her lifetime.
Global fertility fell to 2.4 in 2017 and is expected to fall to 1.7 by 2100, the researchers said. The study was published in the recent lysier.
As a result, the researchers expect the global population to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century, which is a big deal, and much of the world is trending towards a gradual decline in the natural population, and it is very difficult to think thoroughly and realize that this is a serious problem, which is unusual and that we will have to restructure our society.
Why has the fertility rate declined?
Fertility rates have nothing to do with male sperm counts or common problems in discussing fertility, instead, the general access of modern women to higher education, their devotion to heavy work, and the widespread use of contraception have led modern working women to choose fewer children, and in many ways the decline in fertility is a significant feature of modern families.
Which countries are most affected by the decline in fertility?
Scientists predict that Japan’s population will continue to decline from a peak of 127 million in 2017 and may be less than 053 million by the end of the century. Over the same period, Italy’s population is also expected to decline sharply, from 61 million to 028 million. This is just two of the 23 countries with declining fertility rates, including Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea, whose populationis are expected to shrink by more than half over the same period.
This forecast is very alarming. China, the world’s most populous country, is expected to peak within four years, but the population is expected to fall to 732m by 2100, and India will replace it with the world’s most populous country.
The UK’s population is expected to reach 75million million in 2063 and fall to 71million by 2100. However, this is a serious global problem, as 183 of the 195 countries have fertility rates below replacement levels.
Why is this a serious problem?
One might think that a decline in fertility would be environmentally beneficial, that a reduction in population would reduce carbon emissions, or that deforestation for arable land could be reduced, in addition to the reversal of the age structure of the population (older than the young) and the negative effects of the phenomenon. “
The study also predicts that the number of children under the age of 5 will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100, and that the number of people aged 80 and over will jump from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100.
It’s going to bring about a huge social change, and it’s very worrying because I have an 8-year-old daughter and we don’t know what the world will be like. In an ageing social environment, who pays their taxes? Who pays for health insurance for the elderly? Who’s going to take care of the old? Can people still retire normally? We need a “soft landing” and we need to maintain social stability.
Is there a solution?
Some countries, including the UK, are using immigration to increase the number of people to compensate for the decline in fertility. However, once the population of almost every country is declining, it is difficult to find effective solutions. Some countries will make up for the decline in fertility from open borders or by switching to competitive migration, but these measures are far from adequate.
At present, some countries have undertaken institutional reforms, such as policies such as increased maternity and paternity leave, free childcare, financial incentives and the right to additional employment, but have not been effective in improving the decline in fertility and the gradual decline in the population.
In recent years, some countries have achieved significant results in increasing fertility, with Sweden raising the fertility rate from 1.7 to 1.9, but others, despite their great efforts to cope with the “low fertility”, are still struggling, for example, Singapore’s fertility rate is still around 1.3. People don’t take the phenomenon seriously, they don’t even believe it’s real, and they think women can decide to have more babies.
How are some countries coping with declining fertility?
The researchers warned against undermining women’s progress in education and contraception, with Professor Stein Emil Vollset saying: “Responding to a declining population may be a top policy issue in many countries, but no compromise simply can be made on women’s reproductive health or women’s rights.” “
What’s the situation in Africa?
By 2100, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is expected to triple to more than 3 billion, and the study says Nigeria will become the world’s second-largest country with 791 million people. In the coming period, more people of African descent will settle in more countries, and the global racist situation will become even more acute if many countries have large numbers of people of African descent.
Why is fertility 2.1 a threshold?
You could think that fertility should be 2.0, which means that a family has two children, so the population will remain the same. But even with the best health care, not all children will grow up healthy into adulthood. And babies are more likely to be boys, which means that the key fertility figure in developed countries is 2.1. At the same time, countries with high child mortality rates also need to maintain high fertility rates.
What is the expert’s point of view?
Professor Ibrahim Abubakar, of University College London, said: “If these predictions are only half accurate, immigration will be a necessary option for all countries, not an option. To successfully control fertility, we need to fundamentally rethink global politics, and the distribution of working-age populations will be critical to human prosperity. “