Three years from now, an asteroid will hit Earth, the equivalent of 15 atomic bombs? The probability is not very high.

The news of the “asteroid impact on Earth” was a delight to all, but yesterday a hot search caused a crowd that was ready to eat melons to panic. The news says an asteroid named JF1 will hit Earth on May 6, 2022, but it’s no ordinary asteroid.

Three years from now, an asteroid will hit Earth, the equivalent of 15 atomic bombs? The probability is not very high.

The asteroid, called 2009 JF1, is said to be about 130 meters, about the size of the Giza pyramids, and once it hits Earth, it will release the same force as 15 Hiroshima atomic bombs.

In just a few seconds, it can be devastating, wiping out entire cities and killing millions of people.

Pinch ingress, with less than three years left in life?

So, will this asteroid really collide with Earth in three years’ time? And that powerful? Let’s explain it one by one today.

What kind of asteroids are a threat to Earth?

There are about half a million asteroids in the solar system. There are some dangerous objects in small near-Earth objects closer to Earth, which are large in size and can cause local or even global disasters if they collide with the Earth at high speed.

At present, about 1,700 dangerous objects have been found around the Earth.

But because their orbits change at all times, they can become dangerous even if they are not.

In order to distinguish the level of harm, the “Turin index” is generally used to distinguish.

It is divided into 11 levels of 0-10, the larger the number, the darker the color of the risk level.

Three years from now, an asteroid will hit Earth, the equivalent of 15 atomic bombs? The probability is not very high.

Turin Index (Photo: NASA Near-Earth Object Research Centre)

Simply put,

White (0): No danger, indicating that the chance of the object hitting the Earth is zero;

Green (1): Need to monitor the chance struck the Earth over a period of decades close to other objects of similar size;

Yellow (2-4): Need to pay attention to the slightchance of impact, astronomers will pay attention to and step up observation, such objects are often in the end there is no risk of “zeroing” treatment;

Orange (5-7): Threat, indicating a higher chance of impact, with far-reaching threats of impact severity caused severe regional damage, and governments may be authorized to take emergency response plans if the object is likely to hit the Earth within 10 years;

Red (8-10): Danger, indicating that an impact will occur and will cause larger damage.

Will the 2009 JF1 hit the Earth?

First, the 2009 JF1 asteroid is not the 130 meters that has been transmitted online.

According to NASA’s Near-Earth Object Research Center, the 2009 JF1 asteroid is only 13 meters in diameter, has a mass of about 2,800 tons, and has a collision power of about 230,000 tons of TNT.

Three years from now, an asteroid will hit Earth, the equivalent of 15 atomic bombs? The probability is not very high.

2009 JF1 Data Source: NASA Near-Earth Object Research Center

And according to the Turin Index, the 2009 JF1 asteroid is a 0-grade, the probability of impact to Earth is only 0.026 percent, not yet a real threat to the Earth.

So the probability of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2022 is not very high.

Three years from now, an asteroid will hit Earth, the equivalent of 15 atomic bombs? The probability is not very high.

Asteroid 2009 JF1 orbital map (Photo: NASA)

What impact does near-Earth asteroids have on Earth?

Even if you don’t hit The Earth directly, the threat of some asteroids is still huge.

Because small objects fly over the earth, they are sometimes torn apart by the Earth’s gravity and atmospheric friction splints into varying amounts of debris.

Some of these fragments will “persistently” kiss the Earth’s surface over the thick atmosphere, leaving a mark on the earth’s surface if it is too hard, for example.

At about 12:30 p.m. on February 15, 2013, a meteorite at a speed of 40 km/h crashed into Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia.

Meteorites explode and burn in the atmosphere and break into three parts, forming the so-called “meteorite rain”. About 1,200 people were injured, nearly 3,000 buildings were damaged and direct economic losses were nearly 200 million yuan.

This small object weighing less than 30 tons, such as “Magic Pill” generally has such destructive power, that as in 2009JF1 such a large asteroid, human stoic son will be closely monitored.

How to monitor unsettling asteroids?

At present, there are several international missions dedicated to small near-Earth objects, more famous are LINEAR, Spacewatch, Catalina Sky Survey, ATLAS and so on.

The Sentinel system in the United States is an automated early warning system that lists possible threats to the planet over the next 100 years.

When a potential impact is possible, the system immediately analyzes the results against the Turin Index and publishes them on NASA’s Sentinel System website.

In conjunction with the system is the “investigator” system in Pisa, Italy. The data comparison between the two systems improves the efficiency and credibility of the two systems.

Chinese scientists are watching the whereabouts of these “dangerous elements” from outside the site around the clock using the Near-Earth Object Telescope located on the National Observatory’s Xinglong Observatory, Zijinshan Observatory and other observatories.

Asteroids are “evil”?

Of course not. Near-Earth asteroids can be said to be both a threat and a wealth.

In 2014, the European Space Agency’s Rosetta comet probe finally arrived at Comet 67P, providing us with unprecedented and valuable information about the comet and the first time in human history that a comet has landed.

In 2018, NASA’s asteroid probe OSIRIS-REx arrived at the asteroid Benu to begin exploring the near-Earth object, which could threaten Earth’s security. The probe will return in March 2021, and the sample data is expected to provide new evidence for the study of solar system formation and the origin of life.

In 2019, the Japanese asteroid probe Osprey II successfully landed on the asteroid Dragon Palace for the second time in 2019, helping to solve the mystery of the birth of the solar system.

The so-called “disaster is relying on”, the short-Earth small objects that always threaten the safety of the earth give human headaches, but for mankind to understand the universe and the origin of life opened a window.

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