Byte Dance’s side of the capital dance: someone ran with people for eight years, someone fished in the water.

The TikTok ban has been in tatters, and rumours of a Byte Dance listing have returned. On July 31st it was reported that ByteDance China was considering listing in Hong Kong or Shanghai, and that the company was in a relative lying hong Kong. At the same time, overseas businesses may also be listed in Europe or the United States. ByteDance and HKEx declined to comment.

After the news came out, the relevant concept stocks collectively moved. Gravity Media, Global Printing, Provincial Wide Group, Color News Shares, Xuanya International, Jiayun Technology, Meisheng Culture, Caesar Culture and other shares rose and stopped, Tianlong Group, Chinese Online, Blue Cursor and so on have risen.

Domestic by Tencent, Baidu and other competitors “surrounding”, foreign countries by the United States, India and other overseas markets “blocked.” But the capital market’s enthusiasm for Byte Dance has not changed with the negative news.

“Beating” revenue and valuation.

Once successful, in addition to Zhang Yiming will officially be among the top tier of China’s rich list, a large number of investment funds with ByteDance will also make a lot of money.

Byte Dance, founded in 2012, has seen eight rounds of funding in the past eight years, according to the data.

The latest round of financing was in March, when it secured a strategic investment from the Tiger Fund of the United States. In a letter to investors, The Tiger said it had “purchased ByteDance shares at a lower multiple of future free cash flow”.

According to people familiar with the matter, Tiger first paid $37.5 billion for a partial stake in ByteDance, according to people familiar with the matter, and then bought more shares at a premium in the second-hand market. The final amount and proportion of the stake are not known, but Tiger Isal is by-owning by ByteDance after the deal is completed.

ByteDance is estimated to have been valued at close to $100billion, based on the price of the second-hand market at the time.

Byte Dance's side of the capital dance: someone ran with people for eight years, someone fished in the water.

Many organizations believe that there is still room for improvement in this figure.

ByteDance’s revenue growth has remained above 200 percent in recent years, according to people familiar with the matter. It was 6 billion yuan in 2016, 16 billion yuan in 2017, 50 billion yuan in 2018 and nearly 120 billion yuan in 2019.

This year, ByteDance has set itself a target of 200 billion yuan, almost half of Tencent’s (in 2019, Tencent’s revenue will be about 377 billion yuan).

Citic Securities Is optimistic that “byteDance is expected to become a multi-billion dollar giant with the company’s continued growth, given the company’s unique position and competitiveness in the field of short video and AI content push.”

ByteDance’s valuation will be higher in terms of PS (MARKET share, total market value/sales revenue) or PE (Price/Share Price/Earnings) perspective, according to Guohai Securities Research. Based on Tencent’s PS 2019, by-accounted, ByteDance’s market value would be as high as 1.8 trillion yuan if it could generate 200 billion yuan in revenue by 2020.

All this judgment, however, is based on Byte Dance’s ability to continue to grow at a high rate this year. But in the recent bybyDance’s “internal worries”, investors have begun to sit still.

Anti-siege.

Domestically, ByteDance, which is expanding its business landscape, may face a “siege” from its competitors because ByteDance is indeed fighting around, challenging other internet companies.

From 2014 to June this year, ByteDance has 89 investment activities in 14 sub-sectors, including tool software, media consulting, corporate services, artificial intelligence, culture and entertainment, according to The Pepper Entertainment. The investment logic is simple and crude: if you want to do any business, you invest in a company.

In the past year, ByteDance has made high-profile forays into education, gaming and other fields, and its old rival Tencent’s “head fight” has escalated again.

The enemy of the enemy is a friend. In June, media reported that Tencent planned to approach Baidu, which owns 56.2 per cent of Aichi Arts, to become the largest shareholder in Aichi. Coupled with the previous Tencent investment of knowledge, fast hands, “surrounding” Byte Dance has formed the momentum.

Byte Dance's side of the capital dance: someone ran with people for eight years, someone fished in the water.

Overseas, byte Dance was “turned over” after the byte Dance fire.

On June 29th the Indian government issued a surprise announcement banning 59 Chinese apps on the grounds that it undermined “India’s sovereignty and integrity, India’s defence, national security and public order”. TikTok was the first to take the lead, as were Helo (social media and entertainment platform) and Vigo Video (the overseas version of Volcanic Video) for ByteDance.

India is ByteDance’s largest overseas market. All three major products are sold out, and people familiar with the matter say it will cost ByteDance more than $6 billion.

The U.S. government is mulling a bill against TikTok.

On July 22, the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee passed the “Prohibition of the Use of TikTok On Government Equipment” and the next step will be to be a full Senate vote, according tomedia reports. The bill is part of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act and could soon become law after a vote in the House and Senate.

Byte Dance could make huge sacrifices if it is to preserve the U.S. market and meet the regulatory requirements of the U.S. government.

A more modest solution would be to divest TikTok’s U.S. business. TikTok USA will become an independently operated subsidiary, and ByteDance, as parent company, will only act as a financial holding and investment, but some of the conditions proposed by the US government will still need to be met.

Another more radical solution would be to give up most of TikTok’s stake and business control, so that TikTok is basically an American company.

Some investors in ByteDance, which could include Sequoia Capital, General Atlantic, SoftBank and New Enterprise, have already offered to buy a majority stake in TikTok,media reported. They value disainsted at $50 billion, 50 times The $1 billion in estimated revenue for TikTok in 2020.

The latest news is that the investors are already urging Mr. Zhang to make a decision as soon as possible to sell some of the shares worth $25 billion to $40 billion. Details under discussion also include the creation of an independent board, the choice of an independent headquarters, and the announcement of the plan as soon as next weeks.

Investors wanted to take control of TikTok by pushing for a quick profit by pushing it to go public, but Mr Zhang “can’t stand it.”

Because this means not only that ByteDance’s overseas layout over the years will be lost, but more importantly, core technologies such as ByteDance’s content recommendations will also be forced to be shared.

Byte Dance, forced to the edge of a cliff, must come up with a response as soon as possible.

The hype is a bit early.

By ByteDance business shocks, the relevant concept stocks have also seen several ups and downs so far this year.

Byte Dance's side of the capital dance: someone ran with people for eight years, someone fished in the water.

According to Guohai Securities Research, the core sectorof ByteDance flow realization is mainly intelligent marketing, content sector and live e-commerce, with a market size in 2020. Correspondingly, the “ByteDance industrial chain” in these three sectors will also be driven.

One is a partnership company that provides advertising, integrated marketing and other services for the core brand of ByteDance. Recently, ByteDance’s marketing services brand launched a commercial support program, the “Star Project”, which is expected to once again catalyze the MCN institutions in the wind.

Second, content and copyright companies. With today’s headline-grabbing, sonic traffic, ByteDance will continue to benefit from a partnership that has premium content production capabilities or copyright reserves, including gaming, film and television, digital reading, and more.

Third, live-streaming businesses like Byte Dance have new boundaries. In the live e-commerce circuit, from the competition of user traffic will eventually transition to supply chain competition, and then the company’s proposed self-built e-commerce system is also in the pipeline.

However, there are also hot spots of “Lee Ghost”, trying to label themselves “Byte Dance”. After the news of the listing, these so-called concept stocks also smelled the wind, a full-scale rally.

On June 3rd, for example, Xuanya International responded to investors’ questions on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interactive Platform by saying that its controlling subsidiary “provides integrated Internet marketing solutions and services to advertisers “with the help of advantages of the ByteDance system of mobile platform resources”.

With the east wind of ByteDance, Xuanya International’s share price rose by 118.60 per cent between June 15 and July 10, with its market capitalisation soaring by Rmb3,041m and its price-to-earnings ratio rising to a staggering 562.03 times, more than 10 times the industry average.

To this end, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued three consecutive inquiries, asking Xuanya International to explain the relationship with the “ByteDance system” and verify the existence of speculation about the share price in line with shareholder selling. In particular, Xuanya International is required to carry out adequate risk warnings on such matters as stock price fluctuations and shareholder selling.

ByteDance also issued a statement saying: “Recent rumours in the capital markets about ‘ByteDance, Today’s Headlines, Sounding Concept Stakes’ are exaggerated or even false, such as overstating ordinary advertising agencies and regular business dealings as strategic partnerships.” Please the vast number of investors to invest prudently, pay attention to risk prevention and control. “

On July 28th, Baotong Technology, in response to investor questions, deliberately mentioned that its stake company, Harvey, “will continue to lay out the AR/VR industry in depth with Platforms such as Huawei and Shake Sound”. The move was seen as an “official announcement” for the “ByteDance/Sound Concept Stock”, and the share price rose and stopped on the same day.

However, the next day Baotong Technology was “punched” from the official voice: “Due to Baotong Technology’s equity company Harvey, in violation of confidentiality agreements, exaggerated the disclosure of the so-called ‘multiple AR game exclusive cooperation with ByteDance’ information.” Byte Dance and Sound decided to cancel all cooperation with Harvey. “

The ByteDance rumored to go public, and company officials declined to comment, and many have decided it was a sure sign.

The secondary market show is as enthusiastic and even frenetic as part of the entire capital game around ByteDance. Only in the process, someone sank to discover the value, and the enterprise to grow together, and part of the capital, but focus on the muddy water fish.

End.

More than two years ago, in a public speech, Mr. Zhang seemed to foresee The plight of Byte Dance.

“The last time I started my business as ceo of 99, the most important thing I learned was to face uncertainty. The market will change, will I not keep up with the times? “

At that time he had figured out the answer to the question:

“You should face the change head-on and find something more fundamental behind it.” The more fundamental thing is the user’s needs. Whether in the Internet or other areas, there is no constant product, the core is to be able to continuously grasp the real user needs. “

“You should face the change head-on and find something more fundamental behind it.” The more fundamental thing is the user’s needs. Whether in the Internet or other areas, there is no constant product, the core is to be able to continuously grasp the real user needs. “

The Wall Street Journal says there could be considerable resistance to disabling TikTok, given its popularity in the United States. In particular, more and more people recorded videos and shared them with TikTok during the outbreak.

“Build a global company”, this dream Zhang Yiming has not given up.

But there was little time left for him.