In a recent report, Morgan Stanley released its forecast for long-term growth in the electric vehicle market, which is expected to account for 72 per cent of global car sales by 2040. Comparing with global vehicle sales of about 65.5 million vehicles last year and about 2.2 million vehicles sold in electric vehicles, including hybrids, this leaves a huge margin for future growth of electric vehicles.
In its report, Morgan Stanley predicts that Volkswagen will sell 11.2 million electric vehicles a year by 2040, surpassing Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle company. The bank’s bullish reasons for VW include its electric alliance with Ford Motor Co., the capacity of its existing plants, and its large supply chain base.
Toyota is expected to become the second-largest electric car company after Volkswagen, with sales of 6.5m vehicles by 2040, although that figure will fall far behind VW.
Tesla, the current market leader, is expected to sell 4.9 million electric cars by 2040, the third-highest in the world. In 2019, Tesla’s global sales will be about 367,500 vehicles, up about 50 percent from 2018.
That means Tesla still has more than 10 times more sales growth over the next 20 years, even though it will be overtaken by Volkswagen and Toyota.
GM is expected to sell 4.1 million electric vehicles in 2040. At a conference call late last month, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas suggested that GM CEO Mary Barra change the company name to Ultium, the name of a new modular platform and battery system launched by GM to highlight its efforts in electrification.