According to a new study by the Institute for Economics and Peace, an international think-tank, 1.2 billion people will face displacement globally by 2050, more than a tenth of the nearly 10 billion people expected to live there, due to rapid population growth, lack of food and water and more natural disasters.
The study used data from the United Nations and other sources to assess eight ecological threats and predict which countries and regions were most at risk.
With the rapid expansion of the global population, the competition for resources will intensify and fuel conflict. Studies suggest that up to 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East could be forced to migrate by 2050.
By comparison, the global population displaced by ecological factors and conflicts will be about 30 million in 2019.
Steve Killelea, founder of the Institute for Economics and Peace, said: “This will have a huge social and political impact not only on developing countries, but also on developed countries, as mass displacement will lead to more refugee flows to the most developed countries. “
The study divided threats into two broad categories: food inseinsement, water scarcity and population growth, and natural disasters, including floods, droughts, hurricanes, sea level rise and rising temperatures.