Tesla’s future isn’t as easy as you think.

The belated battery-day response wasn’t as enthusiastic as expected, so many people turned to digging deep behind it, but most of it didn’t work out. Two weeks after Battery Day, everyone has digested the technology and data at the launch, and the industry has come to the following conclusion: Tesla is showing us what you really expect, but it may be different from what you understand.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

The paper is divided into three parts, the first part explains and explores a long list of numbers that Musk threw out at the meeting, the second part is how Tesla landed those numbers, and the third part is based on these numbers to judge Tesla’s future.

Of course, this article does not look at those things that happen overnight, but the time span is ten years. Ten years ago, we first met the tesla Roadster, and at the same time the prototype Model S crashed (although the production version released in 2012 was very different). Tesla is much larger and more mature today than it was a decade ago, so we have reason to believe that in a decade’s time they will be able to come up with more amazing products.

Tesla sees the future of electric cars.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

On Battery Day, Tesla showed the chart above, but don’t go by, it’s important for the whole article. From this diagram, it may be that some people might mistakenly believe that Tesla is going to increase battery capacity to 10 TWh by 2030. How nice it would be if it were true. In fact, this so-called 10 TWh is the amount of battery our planet consumes each year for electricization, and it has to be connected for 15 years.

In this image, Tesla also found space for semi, Cybertruck, Model S, Model 3 and the new model, which sold for just $25,000. In fact, this is Tesla to divide the different market segments, and at the same time to each segment of the cost and sales forecast. Of course, this is a prediction for a decade from now, and everything can be variable.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

Semi-hanging market.

First of all, this semi-trailer market that Semi is going to attack. Given that the long-range version of the Tesla Semi will be powered by an oversized battery of 1,000 kWh, the maximum capacity of the model is 3 million units. Interestingly, global sales of 2.4 million trailers by 2024 and a half are forecast, so 3 million units by 2030 is a bit conservative. Of course, if you balance long-range and standard-life, i.e. an average of 750 kWh battery packs per Semi, production can take it to another level.

Luxury market.

After talking about the semi-hanging market, let’s talk about the luxury market represented by Model S/X. Given that the Plaid Model S released on Battery Day has increased the battery to 125 kWh, we have reason to believe that in 10 years’ time luxury cars will have 150 or even 200 kWh battery packs, after all, luxury means indulgenth.

At the moment, global sales in this segment hover around 4-5 million units per year, and given the growing number of ultra-luxury models and the gradual cheaping of mid-models, 150-200 kWh battery packs are enough to sell 4.5-6 million units.

Pickup market.

The pickup market is a lot more complicated to explain. Cybertruck, for example, has 100 miles more to last than the lighter, more streaming Model S (EPA has a range of 500 plus miles) because of its more powerful functional properties. That said, Cybertruck is also normal with a 200 kWh battery pack.

Still, the 500-mile range is too poor compared to a traditional pickup, after all, with a tank that’s 1,000-plus miles. As a result, in a decade’s time, electric pickups are likely to feature a 350 kWh battery pack. Obviously, the batteries assopists are enough to make 3 million cars, which is basically the same as demand in the current pickup market, after all, industry experts predict that the pickup market may shrink in the next decade.

Small Robotaxi?

Now it’s finally the hardest part to guess, but the question must not be avoided. Why does the tall-looking Robotaxi belong to small, low-cost, iron-battery electric cars in the future? The problem is hard to explain, but it’s clear that Tesla is using it as a strategic weapon in the Robotaxi market. After all, from the existing market for rides, cars are really not enough at peak times.

For most commuters, the vehicle is just a means of transport and doesn’t need much luxury or space at all. To tell you the truth, if it’s just for work, a family of four with a Volkswagen UP is enough. Of course, there will certainly be other comfort models in the Robotaxi market, but a small, cheap Tesla is definitely the weapon to expand the Robotaxi network, which is the best solution to the problem of peak-hour taxi rides.

That means Tesla’s mystery car won’t have a big battery pack, perhaps as little as 50 kWh or less. However, small batteries don’t cause a lot of trouble, let’s figure it out:

To the big ones:

The small Robotaxi uses a 75 kWh battery pack.

· Model 3/Y compromise with 85 kWh battery pack.

To the smaller:

Small Robotaxi reduces the battery pack to 40 kWh.

· The Model 3/Y only comes with a 75 kWh battery pack.

Either way, it will produce 72-95 million units per year, meeting market demand even by 2030.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

Tesla’s role in the electric transformation.

In addition to the 10 TWh needed to transition to sustainable energy, Tesla wants to increase battery capacity to 30 percent of that number, or 3 TWh, by 2030.

In a recent tweet, Iron Man also stressed that he expects the company to meet its goal of producing 20 million electric cars a year by 2030. With this information, we can make very specific calculations and draw relevant conclusions. The first and most important conclusion is that these 3TWh batteries are not all used in electric vehicles, and some of them are certainly for energy storage equipment.

With these conclusions, we can set a variety of scenarios for Tesla’s future. One thing’s for sure, the 3 TWh battery certainly won’t be the same as an electric car, because 1.5 TWh won’t make 20 million electric cars. Even at the current average battery capacity, 1.5 TWh can only produce up to 16 million cars.

Therefore, it is possible to give 2.5 TWh to an electric vehicle. In this case, the small car/Robotaxi can be equipped with a 55 kWh battery, while the Model 3/Y can use 85 kWh battery pack (average), making 20 million cars no problem.

However, neither of these sub-methods is practical, and 2 TWh is logical for electric cars. However, Tesla’s chart corresponds to vehicle production at 10 TWh, and it’s not clear how the different models under 3 TWh fit in and how to achieve the 20 million-unit target. So we’ve got to figure out how many cars Tesla can sell in different market segments.

The easiest thing to figure out about this question should be Cybertruck. On Battery Day, Musk answered a question, saying that at the scheduled rate, Cubertruck “will sell at least 250,000 to 300,000 units a year, and probably more.” “Obviously, Cubertruck sales are sure to go a step further in a decade,” said Chevrolet Silverado, which will be the third-largest pickup seller in 2019 (576,000 units sold in 2019). After all, this is a market that survives on user brand loyalty, and Cubertruck’s design is too sci-fi. Therefore, this electric pickup should be able to sell 400,000 units a year and be allocated to 140 GWh batteries.

Assuming Semi also sells 400,000 units a year, it will have to split the 400 GWh battery. If you’re going to put together 20 million cars at 2 TWh, the small car/Robotaxi has to reduce the battery to 50 kWh, while the Model 3/Y can continue to keep the 85 kWh battery pack.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

There’s a plan for how 20 million units are allocated, but there’s one problem to watch out for: Semi. As we all know, this is a big market that can eat 2 to 3 million units a year, and as a major competitor in the field of electric self-driving trucks, tesla can sell one Semi.

In such a seller’s market, will Tesla let go of the opportunity to get a ride on the battery life of the passenger car?

For example, set the Semi battery to 750 kWh, Cybertruck 250 kWh, luxury model 150 kWh, Model 3/Y 62.5 kWh, small car/Robotaxi only 40 kWh. That would allow Semi to produce more than 1 million units a year, while Tesla could continue to meet its goal of producing 20 million units a year.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

Tesla’s Future: Literary Edition.

Let’s say it’s 2030.

Cybertruck.

In Tesla’s vision, Cybertruck will be a huge success, becoming the fourth-highest-selling product on the market (the fourth-ranked Toyota Tacoma sold 249,000 units in 2019). The failure to drop the Ford Raptor was a huge achievement for Musk.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

Semi.

In Tesla’s vision, Semi can take a 17% share of the global semi-trailer market, with annual production reaching 130% of the 2019 Model 3. If Musk’s wish is fulfilled, they will have a market share of 3% more than Daimler, the trucking boss. Still, Tesla wants to build more Semis, but not enough batteries.

Luxury product line.

In Tesla’s vision, they will have a quarter of the luxury car market by 2030, as they could become the only manufacturer to own a luxury self-driving electric car. After removing the steering wheel, Tesla’s large screen will even be expanded to 24 inches for passengers to entertain.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

Robotaxi.

In Tesla’s vision, the small Robotaxi is better suited to people’s daily commutes. However, it will not be easy to go through government review, so Musk’s Robotaxi network is unlikely to be completed until 2028.

Tesla’s Robotaxi is likely to be built more than the vehicles sold to consumers in the next decade, and more and more people will be re-examining whether they need to own a car. This year’s new crown outbreak has made many companies want to know one thing, that is, working from home to ensure efficiency can save the company a lot of costs.

For everyday commutes, a backpack is the upper limit for luggage, so Robotaxi doesn’t have to be that big at all, and Tesla might come up with a car that’s similar in size to the Volkswagen Up. With no spare tires and a front case, the car is still enough for four people to sit in, and it can even take a family for a weekend shopping. Don’t forget, online shopping is now quite popular, not to mention ten years from now. Of course, if you’re willing to pay more, it’s not impossible to hit the larger Robotaxi (Tesla models have self-driving hardware anyway).

Model 3 and Model Y.

In Tesla’s vision, the Model 3 and Model Y product lines will remain long-term and continue to be the backbone of sales. Today’s long-life version is equipped with a 100 kWh battery that has more battery life than the 100 kWh Model S of 10 years ago. In short, the current standard renewal is equal to the long-term flight of the past, and the price is reduced again and again. In terms of appearance, model 3 and Model Y are not likely to change significantly, and upgrading the manufacturing style is the key.

Even if Tesla were to set a threshold of 20 million units a year in a decade’ time, it would be hard to rule the world. In the process of this transition, there will certainly be the fall of traditional vendors, but most will continue to exist in some form. In addition, a small number of electric car start-ups will kill a bloody path, after all, they are now like Tesla a decade ago.

Of course, sales of conventional fuel cars will not be completely suspended, but sales will certainly be significantly reduced.

Finally, while other manufacturers may still be unable to outdo Tesla in electric technology, consumer choice is sure to grow.

Summarize.

Tesla's future isn't as easy as you think.

If the average electric passenger car is as divided into 70 kWh batteries, then the world has enough 5 TWh battery capacity, but in fact we’re probably going to use 20 TWh or even 25 TWh batteries every year. No matter how hard Tesla tried, I’m afraid it would eat only 30 percent of the market, and the rest would depend on other automakers.

For Tesla, the annual production of 20 million units is quite a lot, after all, Toyota and Volkswagen will sell only 10 million units a year in 2019. Interestingly, Volkswagen is more ambitious than Tesla, with the German giant expected to produce 22 million units a year by 2030. You know, the Volkswagen brand’s 2025 electric car sales target is only 1-1.5 million units. As for Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Ford and BMW, future sales targets have not been set.

We still have a lot of questions to answer about Tesla’s future, but it’s clear that the batteries will be more championship-like in the future than before.