Nobel Prize prediction weatherfinger: Whose home did this year’s economics prize fall?

On the eve of the Nobel Prize’s announcement in October, the Clarivate Citation Laureates, which has been hailed by academics as a “predictor of the Nobel Prize”, has attracted much attention. Clarivate is the only institution that uses quantitative data to analyze and predict Nobel Laureates of the Year, formerly the Intellectual Property and Technology Division of Thomson Reuters, which has been predicting Nobel Laureates since 2002.

Each year, the agency publishes the Clarivate Citation Laureate, which predicts future winners of the Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, and Economics. The principle of prediction lies in the correlation between “highly cited papers” and “Nobel Prize”, and the citation rate itself can highlight the significant contribution of researchers. Finally, one-tenth of the highest-rated papers most likely to be favoured by the Nobel committee are selected as an annual forecast list.

Nobel Prize prediction weatherfinger: Whose home did this year's economics prize fall?

So far, there have been more than 300 winners of the Corevean Citation Laureate, 57 of whom have won the Nobel Prize, 29 of whom received invitations to the Nobel Prize within two years of winning the Citation Laureate.

This year, 24 top researchers from six countries (the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea) won the 2020 Citation Laureate. Analysis by core for Scientific Information, ISI, shows that their findings are widely considered to be “No. 1”.

Among them, awards in the field of economics were awarded to seven economists, divided into three groups, all from the United States:

1. Claudia Goldin, a prominent female economist and now a professor of economics at Harvard University, is the first tenured female professor in Harvard’s history.

Reasons for the award: Contribution to labour economics, in particular her analysis of the gender and gender pay gap.

2. David A. Dickie Dickey, Special Emeritus Professor, North Carolina State University; Wayne Fuller Fuller is a special emeritus professor at Iowa State University; Pierre Perron is a professor of economics at Boston University.

Why Dickie and Fuller won: Single statistical check in time series analysis.

Why Peron won: Statistical analysis in non-smooth time series.

3. Steven T. Berry Berry, professor of economics at Yale University; James A. Leeson Levinsohn, professor of economics and management at Yale University; Ariel Pakes, professor of economics at Harvard University.

Reason for winning: Demand estimate for the BLP random coefficient discrete selection model.