After 2016, the global mobile phone market resources quickly concentrated, from the original “inverted triangle” into a “T”-shaped pattern, especially in the Chinese market, by Huawei, Xiaomi and other head mobile phone manufacturers composed of the top five camp accounted for almost 90% of the market share. But the future of the mobile phone market is fraught with uncertainty over the outbreak of “black swans” and uncertain periphery.
“Huawei Mate40 series this round of supply control is very strict, do not let ‘out of the market’. If you take goods from the secondary market, dealers can hardly make money, but if you take goods from distribution platforms like Putn, the profit margin is much higher. A low-line Huawei distributor told First Financial that Huawei’s tiered delivery strategy for the Mate40 series has not changed, or it is a priority to ensure the supply of experience stores and fortress stores.
But worries about Huawei’s out-of-stock have been spreading through the channel since August, with the word “out of print” of Kirin chips appearing on the web from time to time. Although Yu Chengdong, Huawei’s consumer chief executive, said he would “solve the problem as much as possible”, the financial pressure will undoubtedly be a test for Huawei’s fast-expanding mobile channel network in a few years.
“Sold out” behind
At 6:08 p.m. on October 30, three mobile phones, Huawei Mate 40 Pro, Huawei Mate 40 Pro Plus and Huawei Mate 40 RS Porsche, go on sale. On the same day, Tmall, JD.com, Suning three major e-commerce platforms the first batch of goods “second light.”
Online, the reporter noted that only the white and black versions of Mate 40 Pro are available for reservations in Huawei’s global flagship stores in Shanghai, and neither the Mate 40 Pro Plus or Porsche versions are available.
Not only Shanghai, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other flagship stores and authorized experience stores, only some models can be booked, and arrival time can not be guaranteed.
“After three rounds of sanctions in the U.S., a lot of our products were out of stock, and a lot of people asked me if the consumer business could continue. I tell you, no matter how difficult it is, we have to keep the business going. “We are trying to do everything we can to solve our supply problems, ” Mr Yu said at the end of the Launch of the Huawei Mate40 series. “
At a Huawei partner meeting last week, a Huawei official singled out $20 billion invested in areas such as chips, sources said. And Yu Chengdong at the launch site also many times to gobi beach vitality tenacious Hu Yangshu self-ratio, hope that the industry to work together.
In the eyes of insiders, what China needs to do this is to give channels enough confidence and strive for channel price stability for at least a year.
“The price is very dangerous, afraid of the price is disorderly, dealers really finished this single to change the door of other manufacturers (store signs). ” Huawei insiders told reporters.
Unlike OPPO and vivo’s channel models, Huawei chose to distribute in the platform provider’s model early on in order to quickly complement the channel short board. For example, China Post Pute (ND distribution model) is mainly responsible for enjoying the series, Nova series, such as product distribution methods, price level development, customer sales communication and other work by China Post is responsible for. In the past, Putontaili (FD distribution model) was mainly responsible for the Mate series, P series products. Mainly as the manufacturer’s capital logistics platform, manufacturers to provide the source of goods to Puton Taili, Putntaili to the manufacturer, at the same time as the total warehouse, to dealers throughout the country, at the same time will be responsible for high-level customer volume.
“We’re in good condition, there’s a division this time.” As a town dealer in Huawei’s Hunan Huaihua, Wang Gang (analyte) told reporters that Mate40’s products are very tight, the general channel goods are really not good to take, and the price is expensive, for dealers there is no profit.
But Huawei’s “nervous” supply of flagship models has been in place since three months ago, and Mr Wang says there is little advantage for dealers if it weren’t for Huawei’s experience store or fortress store. It is clear that Huawei is “grabbing big and small” and controlling the supply is controlling the stability of prices.
Huawei is clearly hoping to protect high-end phones such as the Mate40 Pro this year. Huawei is expected to scale back its mobile phone business, focusing on its high-margin high-end mobile product line and cutting its global handset shipments this year to 170 million units, the company said in a new research note.
This is similar to TheCounterpoint Research data. “Our forecast for Full-Year 2020 shipments of China’s mobile phones at the beginning of the year was about 235 million, and now our forecast has dropped to about 180 million, a decrease of 55 million.” Counterpoint Research research analysts told First Financial. According to the latest statistics, Huawei’s share of smartphone sales in China, including Glory, was 45% in the third quarter, down 1% from the second quarter.
Who’s filling the market?
Smartphone market after many rounds of shuffle has formed a more solid market pattern. Any mobile phone manufacturers to a highly concentrated market share under the large market to increase, is tantum to win food, manpower, channels, capital consumption war is inevitable.
Especially in these two years, due to the rapid concentration of resources, the market has evolved from the original “inverted triangle” into a “T”-shaped pattern, that is, the head brand continues to expand the product line, high school low-cost whole line shuffle, waist brand space greatly compressed, limited scale, small brand products and consumers form a fault line, channels difficult to penetrate, market vitality greatly weakened.
But analysts say the “black swan” and Huawei’s phone contraction front have given the solidified market a chance to “reconstruct”.
Analysts told reporters that About 68% of Huawei’s share comes from China, and if Huawei’s parts supply does not improve, offline channels OPPO and vivo are expected to reap the best dividends with extensive coverage from first-tier to low-tier cities. Online channels Xiaomi and Realme are expected to reap the largest share. Apple will be the biggest beneficiary of China’s high-end smartphone market.
“Phone manufacturers have add-ons, such as Xiaomi, Samsung, HMD, Motorola and so on. Some Chinese manufacturers are more aggressive in their efforts to gain market share, but also to avoid risk in an uncertain environment. If Huawei’s supply of 5G components does not improve, the share of other manufacturers is expected to grow significantly from the first quarter of 2021. “
Huaxin Securities said OPPO has increased mobile phone production in the second half of the year to 110 million units, meaning that OPPO mobile phone production will reach 170 million units for the full year, far exceeding OPPO’s shipments over the years, OPPO sales in 2019 only 120 million units. In 2021, Xiaomi and OPPO will increase their production capacity to 200 million units, an increase of about 50%.
In the latest global data, research by several institutions shows that Xiaomi’s mobile phone shipments in the third quarter ranked third in the world, against Apple, becoming the biggest beneficiary of overseas to fill Huawei’s share. Mr. Lin, chief analyst at Wit Display, told reporters that the jump in sales of Xiaomi’s handsets in Europe was largely due to grabbing Huawei’s share of low-end machines.
Flora Tang told reporters that at this stage Huawei’s share of overseas is mainly from Europe, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. In Latin America, Samsung, Moto, HMD and Xiaomi are expected to share the main share, in the Middle East and Africa, Samsung, Voice, Xiaomi and OPPO are expected to benefit the most, and the main gainers in the European market are expected to be Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO and realme. Current manufacturers’ key strategies include supply chain preparation (increasing, locking in parts supplier orders), adding new projects (including expanding cooperation with ODM) and active channel expansion.
“Huawei’s opportunities are fleeting, and all the major players want to get a first chance in the market refactoring. However, because of the continued decline in the domestic market and the downturn caused by the global epidemic, excessive investment can also pose risks to manufacturers, and developing strategies that best suit them will minimize the risk. Canalys analyst Jia Mo told reporters.
But it can also be seen that Huawei is shifting more and more of its focus to Harmony OS and its software ecosystem to patch up overseas markets. Huawei insiders told reporters that through a series of crackdowns, Huawei is also thinking about a new track in the future, so as to establish a real innovation mechanism for Huawei, such as increased investment in mobile phone business, IoT on the construction of operating system ecology.
At its October 30 launch, Huawei spent half its time releasing wireless headsets, smartwatches, smart speakers, charging treasures, and products such as cameras and suitcases in Huawei’s ecology. Wang Jun, president of Huawei Smart Automotive Solutions BU, also came to Huawei’s home consumer business to launch HI, a smart car solutions brand, in the hope of providing smart car solutions to car manufacturers.
“We’ve been affected or fluctuated, adding uncertainty, but these are not an opportunity because it allows us to grow more industries faster, more resolutely or more well.” Zhu Ping, president of Huawei’s consumer business in Greater China, said in an interview after the Mate40 launch that these industries include the PC/Pad industry, the wear industry, the audio industry, the smart screen industry, the IoT smart selection industry and so on.