Folch: The new crown outbreak in the United States is not optimistic, we’re going to have a tough winter

The grim reality facing the United States is that the new crown epidemic in the United States has intensified. In the past two weeks, the number of confirmed cases of new crowns in the United States has increased by 44%, and the number of deaths due to new crowns has increased by 13%. More worryingly, the new crown outbreak did not occur in specific states or regions alone, as it did in July, and 44 states in the United States have reported a surge in new crown confirmed cases.

Folch: The new crown outbreak in the United States is not optimistic, we're going to have a tough winter

While some believe that the surge in the number of confirmed cases is due to an increase in the diagnostic capacity of the health care system, the reality is that hospitalizations and deaths have increased in the number of confirmed cases. Take Wisconsin, for example. In the past two weeks, the state’s new COVID-19 cases have increased by 46 percent, hospitalizations by 39 percent and deaths by 115 percent.

And even more unfortunately, Anthony Fucci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and an infectious disease expert, said recently that the outbreak would worsen before it was contained. Over the weekend, Mr Fucci said: “In fact, the whole of the US can see hot spots. We now have an average of about 70,000 cases per week, of which the number of cases in more than 40 states is increasing, which will eventually lead to an increase in hospitalizations and ultimately an increase in the number of deaths”.

The seven-day average for new confirmed patients per day is now 85,000. In addition, 93,500 new infections were reported in the United States yesterday, close to breaking the record of 99,000 new infections set on October 30.

In a recent radio interview, Mr. Folch also noted that the United States had never even managed to shake off the first wave of coronavirus. “When we hear people talking about the second and third waves, it’s just the first wave of ups and downs, ” says Mr Fucci. We’ve never been out of the real new crown wave, and we’ve fluctuated up and down in this wave.”

Of course, the next few weeks are not encouraging as much of the country turns cold. Changes in the weather will naturally lead to more people in the rooms in which coronavirus is easy to spread. Moreover, coronavirus is more likely to spread in cold and dry air than in warm weather.

Statnews explains:

Studies have shown that when relative humidity drops from 40 to 60 percent (typical range in warmer weather) to 20 percent, it is clear that more infections can occur and spread. The study comes from past flu and MERS outbreaks caused by another coronavirus.

The latest case reports in China and Seattle early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reach the same conclusion: when relative humidity remains 20% cold, the virus stays stable for longer periods of time and is better able to infect the subject in our respiratory tract. That’s one of the reasons why we get more colds and flu in cold weather.

“As the weather cools down, a lot of things to do indoors, ” says Mr Fucci. So I fear that unless there are effective measures in place to turn this around, we will have a very difficult winter”. A few weeks ago, a top infectious disease expert said the next 2-3 months “will be the darkest of the pandemics.” “