New study: Prevention of new crown super-transmission events Crowd gathering should be limited to less than 10 people

Super-transmission events play a huge role in the spread of the new coronavirus, according to a study released by U.S. researchers. The researchers found that limiting the number of people gathered to 10 or less helped significantly reduce super-transmission events, which in turn reduced the overall number of infections. In epidemiology, the basic number of infections is the average number of infected persons per infected person.

New study: Prevention of new crown super-transmission events Crowd gathering should be limited to less than 10 people

This data varies from person to person, some infected people may not infect others, and super-transmitters may infect dozens of people. The basic number of infections continues to be below 1 before the outbreak can dissipate.

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences saying they define super-transmitters of the new coronavirus as those who can transmit the virus to more than six other people. Using this definition, they found 45 super-transmission events in the current new crown outbreak and 15 super-transmission events in the SARS outbreak in 2003 from published papers. Of these, the vast majority of super-transmission events infected 10 to 55 people, while two super-transmission events in the 2003 SARS outbreak infected more than 100 people.

Using mathematical tools in the field of extreme value theory, the researchers found that although super-transmission events are extreme in the spread of the new coronavirus, they can still occur. The researchers point out that the fact that an infected person becomes a super-transmitter is influenced by factors such as viral load and has a lot to do with the number of people exposed to the virus.

Based on this finding, the researchers developed a mathematical model of neo-coronavirus transmission, which showed that limiting the number of people gathered to 10 or less significantly reduced super-transmission events, thereby reducing the overall number of infections.

James Collins, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the authors of the paper, said super-transmission events may be more important than most people first realized. Although super-propagation events are extreme events, they occur more frequently than people think. If the super-transmission event can be controlled, it is more likely to control the new crown outbreak.