In recent days, Japan and South Korea have released data showing that the fertility decline in both countries is grim. According to the United Nations report, the decline in fertility is a problem facing many countries around the world, for different reasons. According to the Liberation Daily, citing Japanese media recently reported that japan, which had been expected to follow the advent of the “order and” era, would see a wave of fertility peaks, which now seems to have come to naught.
Birth rate plummets, “causes and fertility tide” fears
The total number of newborns in Japan between January and September this year was 67,380, down 5.6% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. If this trend continues into the end of the year, the number of births will be the largest since 1989, when the birth rate fell by more than 5%.
Intercepted from the official website of Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
This will be the fourth consecutive year that Japan’s new population has declined. The number of newborns in Japan has fallen year-on-year since falling below the 1 million mark in 2016: 946,000 in 2017 and 918,000 last year.
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare said the number of newborns in Japan in 2019 is less than 900,000, will be the lowest since 1899 statistics. Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security predicted two years ago that 920,000 babies would be born in Japan this year – meaning the number of new births is falling much faster than expected.
Japanese economists believe that an important factor in this year’s decline in birth rates is that baby boomers (born between 1971 and 1974 and will turn 45 this year) are at the end of their reproductive age. As a result, the number of women of childbearing age in Japan is declining rapidly. According to October 2018, there are 9.07 million women aged 40-49 in Japan, 6.96 million women aged 30-39 and 5.78 million women aged 20-29.
According to the Nikkei Chinese, Japanese society may not be able to expect a higher birth rate for today. In May, the number of newlyweds in Japan nearly doubled, matching the timeline in which Emperor Akihito’s succession, order and “order” era began. Some experts had speculated earlier that many Japanese couples had delayed fertility plans and were waiting to join the “order and fertility boom”. But after May, marriage rates began to fall, “cooling down” expectations that the birth rate would soon pick up. There is no consensus as to what triggered this year’s birth rate crash.
Many developed countries are facing a shrinking population, says Suzuki Suzuki, a professor of law at Keio University in Japan. There are many reasons for the population’s contraction: economic growth has stagnated; young people are at the edge of the job market; and they are more concerned with self-improvement than raising their children. The government should warn Japanese citizens that they are at risk of “extinction”.
The “birth” of a hundred has had little effect
Some small towns in Japan are already in a demographic crisis, according to the Nikkei Chinese. Last year, no newborns were born in the villages of Okawa and Nokawa in Nara Prefecture; To increase productivity, an environment that encourages childbirth is needed. The Japanese government is reversing the decline in population with little success by reforming day care for young children and encouraging employees to take maternity leave and paternity leave.
The reason behind this is that
On the one hand, full-time Japanese employees typically work in a company until they retire, and taking time off to have children or raise children often has an impact on their careers. This encourages women to delay having children, making it more difficult if they want to have “two children”.
On the other hand, the shortage of child care institutions in Japan, overloading and poor operation need to be improved. The Government encourages day-care institutions in the same community to be openoned on Saturdays on a rotating basis to ease the burden on working families in the service sector. But a Cabinet Office study last year showed that the overall utilization rate of private day-care centres open every Saturday was only 30 per cent.
Observers warn that Japan’s aging and younger population could shake up the social security system while squeezing labour resources, pushing up health costs and pension spending and curbing potential economic growth. Looking ahead, the Japanese Government faces not only the urgent task of encouraging and helping families to have children, but also urgently needs to promote productivity among existing members of society.
Korea Statistics Office: Expected to be aging beyond Japan by 2067
The decline in fertility is more “sharp” than in Japan, and it is South Korea.
More than 40 percent of newlyweds had not given birth last year, up 2.6 percent from the previous year, according to data released by South Korea’s Statistics Agency on Dec. 12, according to China News.
Low fertility rates have plagued Korean society in recent years. Data show that the total fertility rate in South Korea in 2018 is only 0.98, meaning that the average number of children born to women of childbearing age in South Korea is less than one. It is estimated that the total fertility rate should reach 2.1 if the total population of Korea is to be maintained.
South Korea’s fertility rate has remained sluggish so far this year.
The number of babies born in September 2019 was 24,123, down 7.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the September 2019 Population Trends Report released by the Korea Statistics Office on November 27. South Korea’s fertility rate fell to 0.88 in the third quarter of 2019, down from a record low of 0.98 in 2018.
South Korea’s Statistics Office predicts that by 2067 South Korea will overtake Japan as the world’s most aging country.
The 2018 survey of newlyweds released by the Korea Statistics Office on the 12th showed that the number of newlyweds registered in all cities except Sejong city fell last year; last year, about 40.2% of newlyweds were infertile, up 2.6% from the previous year; and 24.3% of married couples in three to five years. Households had no children, a 2.5 per cent year-on-year increase.
According to statistics, the proportion of newly married couples with unborn children was as high as 45.7 per cent, but for families where one person worked, the proportion was 34.3 per cent.
High-income newlyweds tend not to have children, according to the office.
South Korean public opinion generally believes that high housing prices, high educational costs, imperfect security system is the main cause of late marriage, low fertility.
The reasons behind the global multi-country fertility decline vary
In recent years, many countries around the world have experienced a decline in fertility.
According to the World Bank’s calendar years of data from the Interface News, South Korea’s total fertility rate fell the most in the 57 years from 1960 to 2017, when the country’s total fertility rate fell by 82.74 percent in the top 20 countries and regions in 2018. The TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (79.1 PER CENT) AND BRAZIL (71.31 PER CENT) HAS FALLEN BY MORE THAN 70 PER CENT.
According to China News Network, citing Australia’s Star Island Daily, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on the 11th, 2018 a total of 315,417 babies were born across Australia, an increase of about 6000 from 2017, but the actual fertility rate fell to 1.74, the lowest on record.
According to the World Population Outlook 2019 Report, released by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the global average fertility level has fallen from an average of 3.2 children per woman in 1990 to 2.5 children in 2019 and is expected to fall to 2.2 children by 2050.
Although the 2019 World Population Outlook notes that the U.S. population is growing rapidly, the U.S. fertility rate fell again in 2018 to its lowest level in more than 30 years.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics found that There were 379,1712 registered newborns in the United States in 2018, down 2% from 2017.
The report notes that the combined fertility rate in the United States in 2018 was only 1,729.5 children for every 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. The data also show that women are getting older to have their first child. The fertility rate for women in their 20s and early 30s has declined, but the fertility rate for women aged 35 to 44 has begun to rise slightly.
William Frey, senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, said: ‘It’s clear that baby boomers and Gen Xers (1965) The traditional age pattern of births for women born in 1980 is changing. He points out that, according to new data, more than half of women in their 30s had a university degree last year, far higher than those who had children in their 20s. This may indicate that deeper social forces are at work.
With the delay in the birth time, there have been other broad changes in society. According to the latest figures from the Census Bureau, the average age of first marriage for women is now 28 and men are close to 30; “It’s a far cry from the 1950s, even the 1980s and 1990s,” Frey said. “
Alison Gemmill, a demographer at Johns Hopkins University, said: “These data show that people want to start their own families before they have children, and they want to make sure they have the resources to ensure that they have high quality. “
Editing by Zhao Yun, Du Hengfeng, Xiao Yong
Daily Economic News Comprehensive Liberation Daily, China News Network,
Interface News, Nikkei Chinese.