A new climate science modeling suggests that if the recent increase in trichlorocriteria (CFC-11) emissions continues, it could delay the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole by more than 10 years. It is currently believed that there are still many uncertainties about the level and trend of CFC-11 emissions and new emissions, but if a quick pause can be found, this delay can be kept within a few years. The study was published in the British journal Nature Communications on The 20th.
About a quarter of the chlorine emitted to the stratosphere is from CFC-11, and its production has been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Under the protocol, the use of CFC-11 was phased out in 2010, and after the Protocol entered into force, scientists had expected the Antarctic ozone hole to return to pre-loss levels in 1980 in the second half of the 21st century. My country acceded to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in September 1989 and the Protocol in June 1991. China had achieved the montreal protocol’s compliance targets for all stages as scheduled for nearly 30 years, and as of May this year, China had eliminated “ozone-depleting substances” (ODS) accounting for more than half of the phase-out in developing countries.
In 2018, there were reports that CFC-11 emissions had not declined as expected since 2005, but the study was not able to locate the source more accurately in terms of methods and accuracy, so no source has been found for the new CFC-11 emissions.
In the latest study, Martin Chipperfield, a researcher at the University of Leeds in the UK, and colleagues have built a new and detailed model of atmospheric chemical transport to investigate the effects of these additional emissions on polar ozone recovery.
The team analyzed three possible trends in CFC-11 emissions: one is to stop emissions immediately; Simulations show that the impact of emissions on the ozone hole has so far been limited. However, if emissions continue at certain levels, ozone will return to 1980 levels or be delayed by about 18 years. If emissions are to decrease over the next 10 years, the delay will be about two years.
Earlier reports suggested that more research might be needed to fully answer cFC-11 emissions.
Editor-in-chief circle point
Climate change is a hot topic all over the world, but it’s not just about talking about it and really doing it. The country needs to act – according to statistics, China has a point in phasing out “ozone-depleting substances”. The public also needs to act in their daily lives – which requires a real awareness of the real impact of climate change on human life and survival, and the transformation of awareness-raising into action.