Tesla China Run: Don’t make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

Home-made Tesla “Real Fragrance”. With the delivery of 10 domestic Tesla Model 3s on January 7th, Tesla’s sales in China have been rising, and Tesla sales staffer Kim Ye (pseudonym) is too busy to even get Back to WeChat, “Now place an order, the pick-up time is scheduled for two or three months.” “

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

At the Tesla Super factory in Shanghai’s port, the original empty parking lot was gradually filled with Model 3, and engineer Lu Ming (pseudonym) boasted of “the speed of Chinese workers” and was content to be only 50 meters away from “Love Bean” Musk, but he had been working overtime for nearly two months.

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

After the subsidy less than 300,000 yuan of Tesla, successfully led to the love of new energy vehicles, and domestic new energy vehicles generally “sad” in the subsidy decline, market downturn, according to Societe Generale Securities Research, with the future of Tesla supply chain to achieve localization, its price still has 27%-34% of the price of the price space.

This is not good news for domestic new energy vehicle companies.

Domestic VS imports 30% cheap

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

On the afternoon of January 13th, a week after Tesla’s delivery, although it was a working day, tesla’s Shanghai Swire store was still crowded, with many people huddled in front of a home-made Tesla to take selfies, get in and sit in the trilogy.

“Weekend test drive, the number of people who ordered is very many, are too late to reply to WeChat consultation. “Golden Leaf is a sales staff at Swire Stores.

“Now place an order, pick-up time is expected to take two to three months, we all feel cost-effective, Shanghai car owners can get another Piece of Shanghai license.” Kim ye ei revealed that in the morning alone, her team had taken three orders.

Although most people are coming to the domestic Tesla, but occupy the C-bit of the store is still the imported version of the Model 3, and can test drive, only the imported version.

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

The imported four-wheel-drive long-range Model 3 sold for $43,990, and with the exception of a 15-inch tablet powered by a Tesla system, the dashboard was replaced by a wood-print edited, and after launch, driving, navigation and entertainment information were all displayed on the tablet.

Compared with the average 1.6L compact car 100 km acceleration takes 11 to 13 seconds, 2.0T medium car takes 7 to 8 seconds, the domestic Tesla 5.6 seconds 100 km acceleration is a remarkable speed. Autopilot Basic Assisted Driving features that sense and follow surrounding vehicles and automatically assist steering, acceleration and braking in the driveway, but do not sense traffic lights.

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

About 30% cheapdomestic Model 3, the range from 590 km to 445 km, four-wheel drive into rear two-wheel drive, 100 km acceleration time is 1 second slower, and the rear seats can not be heated, in addition, other functions are almost the same.

“Currently, the domestic production rate of domestic model 3 parts is about 30%. “Golden leaf told reporters, therefore, less than 300,000 yuan price is particularly attractive.

Mr. Shen is a car enthusiast, is also the first batch of domestic Model 3 subscribers, he gave reporters to calculate an account, give Shanghai brand, low charge cost, free purchase tax, maintenance zero cost, plus auxiliary driving function, very high cost-effective.

Domestic Model 3 battery capacity of 60kwh, according to mileage 300 km calculation, after 22:00 with the household charging pile charging, 0.307 yuan / degree, an average of 6 cents / km; Ms. Zhao, who has been importing the high-performance version of Model 3 for nearly a year, used to spend nearly 500 yuan a week on fuel, and now charges up to 2 times a week, more than 100 yuan each time, which is still the cost of using super charging piles, at least 50% cheaper than a fuel car.

However, after the price reduction of the domestic Model 3 cancelled the free gift and installation of household charging piles of services, car owners need to install an additional 8000 yuan to buy.

“First pressure price supply, such as the occupation of 50 to 60% of the market share, do not rule out price increases. Ronghong (pseudonym) in the automotive industry for many years, has been concerned about Tesla, for the current price, he thinks Tesla profit is very low, the price is likely to be Tesla’s sales strategy, “from the battery life, the cost of the core in 8 to 90,000, electric drive costs in 3 to 40,000, material costs not less than 200,000, plus sales, Stores and other costs, almost no profit. “

But a previous research report by Societe Generale on Tesla’s domestic supply chain showed that the cost of producing the model 3 was 20-28% lower than that of the U.S. version. Henyep Securities estimates that if the pursuit of similar gross margin with the U.S. version, the domestic Model 3 has 27%-34% of the price reduction space, which corresponds to the absolute price reduction amount of 85,000-108,000 yuan.

Some interpret this as a domestic Tesla will fall to about 200,000, but from another perspective, based on the current domestic and import edifgy of about a third of the difference, Tesla’s price reduction space may not be as large as imagined.

Battery “Mystery”

Regardless of the domestic Model 3 profit geometry, according to its 100% domesticization rate target, will inevitably lead to a reduction in costs.

The core cost of new energy vehicles is the “three power system”, that is, batteries, motors, electronic control, batteries are the most valuable part. Tesla has previously purchased Panasonic batteries, but there have been rumors that it will soon switch to the LG 21700 battery, while the domestic battery maker Ningde era also reached a preliminary battery supply agreement with Tesla, that is, soon, the Ningde era will provide some of the domestic Model 3 batteries. “You’re still placing an order with a big chance of getting the car or Panasonic battery, but a little later can’t be guaranteed.” Kim ye told the IT Times, and users do not know what brand of battery they ordered for the domestic Model 3.

At least for now, with the domestic new energy vehicles frequently exposed to self-ignition, low battery life, battery-replacement and other news, Tesla’s battery life and battery quality reputation is very good, “one year about 1%, 10 years of power loss is also 10%, can almost ignore, the battery can still reach more than 400 kilometers. “Golden Leaf is very confident about its own products.

Cheng Ganjiang, director of the Battery Research Institute at Qingdian Smart Energy Research Institute, alike, said, “Tesla’s battery quality and management is very good, and Sandian is one of Tesla’s core technologies.” He told the IT Times, “The key is to solve the security and density problem from the root, in the existing battery in a short time can not innovate breakthrough, a full range of protection, control and innovative design, to solve the safety and temperature adaptation problems, and then trace back to the root cause, the model, Innovations in battery packs and power change modes solve the problem of charge-change and battery life. “

“The Shanghai plant is Musk’s current priority, with the largest potential market and the lowest-cost production site in China. “In a new battery assembly plant in a vacant lot not far from the superfactory, a battery pack the size of a car chassis is a day-to-day workflow on the production line. Finally adopt what battery, Lu Ming may not care much, anyway, the visible future is to work overtime. His Tesla battery line, which started working heavily in December, “sleeps only four hours a day, and it’s a little bit of a stretch.” “Even now, it’s the norm to leave work at 19:00, and working overtime all night is the norm.

Busy Tesla doesn’t have a “year-end bonus”

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

Over the past year, Tesla’s Shanghai Super factory has made rapid progress, and Lu Ming feels that it is not so much Tesla’s speed as the speed of Chinese workers, and that Master Yao, the contractor who was responsible for installing Tesla’s production line, has only had a day off in three months. For Lu Ming, his work has never been relaxed since he joined.

On December 30, 2019, the first Teslas were about to be delivered, and the original empty parking lot was gradually filled with model3s, and the test drive was the last step in the domestic Tesla factory, “the test drivers in the factory were particularly busy, and each Tesla shipment had to be turned on the runway for two turns.” Lu Ming told the IT Times.

Tesla’s revenues are not high compared to other Silicon Valley companies. Despite the recent close, Tesla did not have a year-end bonus, and Lu Ming’s biggest hope was a dividend on the stock price, only to fall after hitting a high of $547 on January 14th, before falling to $518 as of The close of U.S. eastern time on January 15. Tesla employees abroad even protested that Tesla had pushed its year-end performance review to early 2020, the equivalent of a stock rally, causing employees to miss out on gains during the boom. The only benefit that Tesla employees in China buy is the free self-driving feature.

Lu Ming’s busy schedule, in addition to the impressive delivery from Tesla, is due to the shortage of jobs for Tesla engineers.

Tesla has been posting several job offers on its public numbers since the end of April, but superfactory jobs are still not filled. “Engineers have not been full, there are many candidates, but fewer qualified. Lu Ming told reporters that of all the production workshops, battery line engineers are the most scarce.

On January 12, Tesla announced a recruitment announcement on the “Port-by-Port Recruitment” public, focusing on research and development team positions, including technical project experience, product support engineers, data engineers and more than 20 positions.

In a QQ group called “Tesla Shanghai Super Factory Group”, hundreds of workers discuss Tesla’s hiring, and workers who have been interviewed share their experiences, and they mainly interview assembly line positions, such as forklift workers, quality, assembly and so on. On the 15th, hundreds of candidates who had been notified of the interview lined up outside the application center at Tesla’s Port-of-Hong Kong plant. Mr. Wu originally worked in an electronics factory, he applied for a logistics post, according to the notice time, he arrived at the scene around 11 o’clock that day, “people and mountains, waiting for 2 hours has not been their turn, so cold days, we are all outside the queue, even the door of the recruitment center did not go in, the scene gave up a lot of people.” “

However, Mr. Mu is a good luck among the interviewers, walking, bus, subway, three hours later, he arrived at the scene around 12:30, waiting for about an hour on the wheel, “I put in the Tesla official website resume, the interview is quality testing, interview quickly, mainly to see if there is experience, if passed, At the end of this month at the earliest, I’ll be told i can go to Tesla for work after the Spring Festival. “

The source power of the future

Tesla China Run: Don't make money also want to circle the first time not to rule out future price increases

In sharp contrast to Tesla’s “hot” market, China’s new energy vehicle car market is depressed, with sales of new energy vehicles down 4.0 percent year-on-year to 1.206 million units in 2019. There are many views that the overall market environment changes and Tesla’s entry into the market, so that the domestic new energy vehicles face unprecedented challenges. In a catchphrase, “it’s too hard.”

Electric, intelligent, network-connected, shared “new four” is spawning the “revolution on the road”, and leading the revolution is Tesla.

If the “cold winter” of the car market sweeping the world is only the current profits of each enterprise, the “New Four” movement to the automotive industry new changes is the driving force to determine the future direction of enterprises.

“Tesla’s fire is like putting China’s new energy vehicle industry on fire. “Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Institute of Digital Economics Executive Director Pan and Lin to the “IT Times” reporter admitted that the strong brand effect makes other manufacturers difficult to compete, stimulated by Tesla, domestic new energy vehicle enterprises should be careful lying how to step up technological innovation in the case of the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, which will help enterprises to innovate and scientific and technological progress.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no chance.

“Tesla can’t eat all the pure electric market, it’s on the mid-to-high-end route and it’s market segments. “In Ronghong’s view, Tesla has a greater impact on Internet car makers, many of which started out as Tesla. However, the advantage of Internet car-building enterprises is that the domestic industrial chain is better, and Tesla’s supply chain towards China, need to integrate with the domestic supply chain, there is a 1 to 2 year cycle, but also face the challenge of technology optimization and reduction.