The current outbreak is bound to affect China’s smartphone market, of course, this is only an acceleration of the contradiction to highlight the external so that the real or user demand itself is too low. In the first quarter of 2020, mobile phone brands and industry chains are facing three potential risks, according to a report by Guo Mingyu, an analyst at Tianfeng International.
1, the Chinese market mobile phone shipments will be lower than market expectations;
2, 5G mobile phone to Android brand replacement demand contribution is less than expected;
3, iPhone supply in 1Q20 affected by the outbreak of the shipping expected lower than expected.
The above three potential risks, risk 1 and risk 2 are demand issues, outbreak outbreaks only accelerate these two floating surface. Risk 3 is more like a supply-side problem, specifically, the Chinese market during the 2020 Spring Festival mobile phone shipments decline dying by about 50-60%, resulting in about 50-60 million units of high-water inventory.
Guo believes that china’s mobile phone shipments in 2019 about 360-380 million units, due to the lower-than-expected demand for 5G replacement and the outbreak of the negative impact of consumer confidence, China’s mobile phone shipments in 2020 is expected to decline by 15% to 3.1-330 million units (vs. market consensus of 330 million to 350 million units).
The report also pointed out that 5G for high-level mobile phone replacement demand and brand value is not helpful, so the key to changing demand is not as expected is that 5G can not create innovative user experience, so even if 5G mobile phone penetration rate because of the replacement of 4G mobile phone and rapid growth, but the overall mobile phone market is still declining, adverse brand and industrial chain growth.
For Apple, iPhone supplies were affected by the outbreak in the first quarter of this year, and shipments will be cut by about 10 percent to 36-40 million units (vs. 38 million units of 1Q19).
China’s smartphone market is set to fall 30 per cent in the Q1 quarter, the biggest decline in recent years, according to an analysis by Strategy Analytics, a research firm.
According to a report released by Strategy Analytics, the global smartphone market will decline by 2% in 2020 and China’s smartphone market by 5% as expected, with Q1 being the worst affected, with a decline of more than 30%.
The global and Chinese smartphone market has become saturated and is already in decline, especially in the off-season of Q1, with Q1 quarter 2019 IDC data showing global smartphone shipments of 310 million units, down 6.6 percent year-on-year, and 88 million in China’s smartphone market, down 3 percent.