Tesla’s share price has been on a rocket in the last month, hitting a record high of $968.99 today, rising more than 120 percent in just over a month this year, surpassing Ford Motor Co., General Motors, Honda Motor Co., ltd. The combined market capitalisation of Ferrari (listed in the United States) also exceeds the combined market capitalisation of Volkswagen and BMW.
But by the end of the day, the share price was set at $887.06, up 13.73 percent, with a market value of $159.89 billion.
Just a few days ago, when Tesla released its 2019Q4 results, which had closed at the time, its share price was just $580, giving it a market value of about $105 billion. That means Tesla’s market value has risen by more than $50 billion in just five trading days, and last year it faced a variety of “bankruptcy” situations.
Tesla’s share price is breaking faster and faster:
$300 to $400: 976 days
$400 to $500: 25 days
$500 to $600: 18 days
$600 to $700: 4 days
$700 to $800: 1 day
$800 to $900: 4 hours
In June 2019, Tesla’s share price fell from $347 at the start of the year to $178, thanks to losses and negative news from Tesla’s 2019Q1 results, during which Morgan Stanley announced that it would cut Tesla’s stock price from $97 to $10. (Details: How Tesla is home, it’s over in ten months)
Tesla then held a “shareholder meeting” to show Tesla’s sales, capacity, future plans and other aspects of the situation, the stock gradually began to recover. But even as losses fell in the 2019 Q2 earnings, and the stock briefly recovered to around $260, Tesla has been hit by a lot of shorting and negative news, and its share price has been hovering around $230. (Details: Tesla’s annual “whistle-blowing conference”? )
In October 2019, Tesla’s 2019Q3 results were released and finally turned a profit, showing off its abundant market demand and earnings potential, and releasing many details of the Shanghai Super plant, which has completed production acceptance, and the stock price has started to recover rapidly, rising from $254 to $354. (Details: Don’t make a fuss, you can’t hit Tesla)
Then, in November 2019, Tesla held an electric pickup Cybertruck launch, and although the live demo flipped over, instead of causing the share price to fall, the share price rose all the way up to $430, gaining a lot of exposure, and only Musk’s data. More than a half a million people have already paid down the deposit. (Details: Cyberpunk pickup, Musk-esque madness)
In January 2020, when the Shanghai plant began mass delivery of the domestic version of the Model 3 to its owners, an excited Musk performed a dance at the scene, before Tesla’s share price continued to rise, soaring to $580. (Details: Musk: Thanks to the Chinese government!) )
The good news for Tesla hasn’t stopped. At the end of January 2020, Tesla’s 2019Q4 results were released, again profitable and large cash reserves, giving many hesitant capital a glimpse of Tesla’s strength, and the share price took off again, leaving short capital with a loss of nearly $2.5 billion in just one day. (Details: Tesla is finally out of money, why Musk isn’t satisfied)
But the 2019 Q4 financial results brought about by the rise, it can be understood, so the last five trading days of the consecutive crazy rise, and why?
Let’s take a closer look at what’s happened recently:
First, super Bowl, the NFL’s annual major league championship, officially began on February 3rd, when the auto giants released the ad as early as the end of January. In the U.S., Super Bowl is the equivalent of “Spring Evening” traffic, and even with advertising costs rising year after year ($5.6 million in 30 seconds), companies are still pushing their heads to run ads during that period.
For car companies, such a huge exposure, even if invested a lot of money will not let go, but quite interestingly, this year Porsche, Audi, GMC HUMMER have all handed over the main role to the electric car type.
(Porsche ad: Someone at the Porsche Museum “quietly” stole Taycan, and the guards found out that they were driving different Porsche vehicles and engaged in a chase with the thief, but when the thief was caught, the guard took the Taycan key and said, “It’s my turn to be a thief’)
（奥迪广告：《权利与游戏》中二丫扮演者驾驶e-tron穿越满是污染的城市，献上一曲“Let it go”）
In the past two years, the major traditional car giants have joined the electric car market, whether it is afraid of “emissions regulations” fines, or see the market potential of electric vehicles, there is no doubt that – car companies are beginning to really attach importance to electric vehicles, and in this market ” benchmark” is undoubtedly Tesla.
Second, in recent days, Toyota announced that it would establish a joint venture with Panasonic on April 1, 2020, focusing on the development, manufacture and sale of square and solid-state batteries, with a new company called PrimePlanet Energy solutions. Toyota accounted for 51 per cent and Panasonic for 49 per cent.
In addition, PSA recently announced that it will jointly establish two automotive power battery plants with French battery maker Saft, with a total investment of 5 billion euros to establish a joint venture called Automotive Cell Company (ACC), each with a 50 percent stake.
As the most important and most cost-taking part of electric vehicles, it is obvious whether to master battery technology and mass production capacity, will directly determine the competitiveness of its electric vehicles, so the car companies have entered the battery industry through various means. No matter which form is used, there are three basic models: outsourcing, joint venture, self-study. In the three models, outsourcing is highly flexible, but buying a suitable battery company is expensive, with limited supply and the most serious problem being the lack of access to core technology, while the joint venture, while investing more money, has access to some technology and autonomous control of the supply side, at a much lower cost than the outsourcing.
The hardest way to do this is a self-study approach that holds all the core technologies, controls supply autonomously and is the lowest cost, but the problem is that a lot of money and manpower is still required in the early stages, and the cost of time is difficult to measure. Self-study is not a good deal for “backwards”, so it’s one of the key reasons why Tesla’s technical barriers lie and reduce vehicle costs.
Finally, Panasonic Battery 2019Q4 results were released, the first quarter of profitability that Panasonic and Tesla have combined to build the Nevada Superplant, which mainly produces batteries and powertrains, and showed strong continued profitability. At the same time, Tesla has partnered with The Ninder Era to begin a two-year battery supply starting July 1, 2020, announcing that Tesla’s opening of an era of multiple battery suppliers will help cost control and technology advance.
In fact, no matter what the specific content of the above events, in the final analysis is nothing more than to make capital more clearly see the huge potential of the electric vehicle market. And as the signal becomes clearer, the money that holds the currency waits to wait and see is gradually shifting from “whether this investment is profitable” to “it’s too late to get back in.”
But these are indirect reasons for the growing optimism of capital toward the electric car market, which has gained a lot of capital because Tesla is a leader in the industry. In fact, at the same time, the entire electric car industry’s share prices are rising, such as NIO opened today soon after the rise of as much as 15%.
The author believes that the direct cause of the “Falcon 9”-level thrust on Tesla’s stock price is a video released by Tesla a while ago. At first glance, this flat video may seem of little value, but if you look closely at the 30-second video, you can see why so much capital is starting to trust Tesla.
Road line identification is no longer a problem for Tesla, and the speed of the car and other cars has long been achieved, but as can be seen from the next section, the AP system is now able to identify the ground steering signs and predict the road ahead in “unseen” cases (the lower right corner diagram is road judgment and prediction). Note the data arranged vertically on the left, the number represents the probability of the AI chip judging the road condition, the closer to 1 more certain is the corresponding thing or condition (information shows green then the system has determined the existence, yellow is not completely certain), only from the next picture segment can be seen, the AP system can determine whether automatic highlights, It is not possible to see the road, whether it is raining, whether the tire is splashing, whether the road is wet, the driving area limit, the road direction limit.
Next, the system at a very distance to identify the STOP sign, and determine that the road surface has water, at the end of the fragment to guess whether the road construction conditions (the probability is very low, so think no, CONTRUCTION is white).
When approaching the front vehicle, the system sees the puddle and the right side safe, causing the vehicle to make a slight detour, at which point the system determines that it is currently raining based on the water surface and is confident that the road is restricted.
After a short deceleration, the vehicle at a junction without a marking line, according to the forecast and judgment, accurately drive through the intersection, and determine the front is the top of the hill (HILLCREST), and guess according to the right sign whether there is a toll station situation (probability 0, so think no, TOLLBOOTH).
When it comes to the city, the system identifies all the vehicles, pedestrians, and, most importantly, the red streetlights, and completes the right turn. Note that the STOP logo at the next intersection has been identified at this time.
Stop at intersections according to the STOP logo and wait for the lateral vehicle to pass before driving, while accurately identifying the owner, car, object and object in the field of view that affect the driving, and to determine the role of the ground marking line.
Note that sidewalks, parking signs, and roadside trash cans are also recognized.
The entire video is based on real-time calculations of the Tesla HW3.0 version, the version of the on-board computer with the FSD chip (the car comes after April 2019, and all purchased FSDs and early owners can replace the hardware version for free). The video is a “credit” to sensors in one direction (including three front-facing cameras, sonar and millimeter-wave radars), and Tesla also has two cameras on the right and a rear camera, meaning the vehicle can actually recognize its surroundings 360 degrees without a dead end.
Not only that, the HW3.0 version of the vehicle as long as the updated system, has now been able to successfully accurately identify traffic lights, roadside piles, garbage cans and other items, but at present do not respond, but to show the owner of the system can do what can be done.
The FSD chip was developed by Tesla itself, with self-developed neural network chips being the main reason for Tesla’s rapid progress, with Tesla using a large amount of driving data (only key data results and feedback, and not recording which car from, to protect privacy, and the owner’s choice whether to upload it), and artificial intelligence “deep learning”, Constantly update and upgrade the AP system for rapid progress. (Read more: Where does Musk’s confidence come from?) )
Compared to the first release of fully autonomous driving in 2016, it’s not hard to see Tesla’s rapid advances in hardware and software, where FSD chips are not the most powerful in the autopilot world, but the power/power ratio is industry-leading because no one wants to cut the range too much because of autonomous driving. And according to Musk, even if Tesla were to fully autonomous driving now, the FSD chip still had a lot of computing power to build, and the chip was developed in 2016 to be 14nm, with the new 7nm technology chip likely to be in the development phase, when power consumption could be lower.
The video not only shows Tesla’s rapid growth in self-driving, but also Tesla’s best response to questions about “pure visual recognition.” In April 2019, Musk talked about “abandoning” expensive and unsightly lidar, which has been met with a flurry of criticism from experts and the media, and the voice of doubt is heard.
The reason why the video is the real reason for Tesla’s stock price to soar is that since the release of the 2019 Q4 financial results, more and more people are beginning to realize that Tesla is not actually a car company, but the use of electric cars as a carrier software company. Tesla’s software technology is reflected in trielectric systems, locomotive systems, and autonomous driving systems, and even in automated production processes, it continues to demonstrate its software capabilities.
And regardless of the market value of the “travel space” that can be reached after fully autonomous driving, Tesla’s FOTA alone can be of great value because, unlike simple system upgrades, FOTA can deeply affect every aspect of the vehicle.
For example, after two OTA upgrades in 2019, the Model 3’s power has been increased from 420 to 490, and the 0-60-mile acceleration time has been reduced from 3.8 seconds to 3.2 seconds; Autopilot assistance can be improved in many areas. Tesla also added the Smart Call feature after the V10 upgrade, and then its FSD option spree has gone up by $1,000, and Musk has previously said at the Autopilot Conference that self-driving cars will become the biggest advantage of Tesla’s electric cars as they improve.
Since the Impact of the FOTA upgrade on the vehicle is large enough, the changes that the vehicle can achieve through the upgrade will exceed the imagination of the traditional automotive sector. So once Tesla’s end users grow, the value of its software will rise exponentially, and the commercial value that OTAs can achieve in the future is immeasurable.
And more importantly, Tesla revealed another message in the video, which is strong execution, which means Musk’s promise to “push the feature Completed version (not a fully meaningful L4/L5, but a beta version of the L4) for a small number of test users this year, is likely to be achieved, meaning that Tesla is getting closer to fully autonomous driving.”
Musk’s “big mouth” is well known, and almost all of his promises have been made on Twitter, and in the past, thanks to the overwhelming negative news, people have noticed only those “delayed” deliveries, but ignored the “PPT master” of the extremely high cash rate.
Last year, one fan made a table that counted Musk’s promises and fulfillment, and it’s clear that while many of the promises were delayed for a long time, there were also many timely and early fulfillments. Above all, Musk’s promises, he almost fulfilled.
When a business, with abundant funds, efficient execution and highly competitive products, guess how the capital will choose?
Besides, the boss’s goal is the sea of stars.
Note: This article only analyzes the Tesla stock price in recent days, part of the possible reasons, does not represent investment advice, because if you have enough strength, the author as early as the writing of $178 stock price analysis will be home to buy Tesla stock.