Recently, researchers from the Cervical Cancer Elimination Modeling Federation (CCEMC) published two new studies in The Lancet. Based on the dynamic transmission model of HPV infection, the study analysed 78 low- and middle-income countries (as defined by the World Bank).
The first study projected that, by vaccination alone, low- and middle-income countries could reduce the number of cervical cancer cases by 89.4 per cent in the next century, with the incidence rate reducing from 19.8 cases per year to 2.1 per 100,000 persons per year, thus preventing 61 million new cases.
On the basis of HPV vaccination, combined with two cervical cancer screenings, the number of cervical cancer cases can be further reduced by 96.7 per cent, the incidence rate reduced to 0.7 columns per 100,000 person-years, and an additional 12.1 million new cases can be prevented. All 78 low- and middle-income countries can accelerate 11-31 years and meet the goal of eliminating cervical cancer.
The second study shows that vaccination alone has a small impact on cervical cancer mortality, reducing by only 0.1% by 2030, but that two lifetime screenings and enhanced cancer treatment will significantly improve cervical cancer deaths.
In 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) set a triple intervention and its 2030 target: human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage reached 90 per cent; 70 per cent of women were screened at least twice in their lifetime (35/45 years of age) and 90 per cent of women diagnosed with cervical cancer received the treatment they needed.
With the combined triple intervention, some 300,000 women could be prevented from dying from cervical cancer by 2030, equivalent to a 34.2% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. More than 74 million cases of cervical cancer and 60 million cervical cancer deaths are expected to be prevented over the next century, and cervical cancer is expected to be eliminated.