A new study published in the European Union of Geosciences in Earth System Dynamics suggests that the latest computer models show that global sea levels could rise by up to three times this century because of Antarctica alone.
The heat ingress of sea water caused by global warming and melting mountain glaciers is the most important factor contributing to sea level rise. Antarctica’s freshwater reserves account for about 90% of the world’s total freshwater, so melting Antarctic glaciers is the main cause of sea level rise.
“For global sea levels, the Antarctic factor is the biggest risk factor for uncertainty,” said Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. Although sea levels have risen by only 19 cm in the past 100 years, sea levels have risen by as much as 58 cm this century due to melting glaciers or ice in Antarctica. “
A team of 16 ice-cap models from 36 researchers from 27 institutes contributed to the new study, coordinated by PIK. A similar study six years ago relied on the results of only five ice sheet models.
The range of sea level rise, assessed by the “Antarctic Factor” provided by scientists, is considerable. If humans continue to emit greenhouse gases as before, scientists say the model will be between 6 and 58 centimeters of sea level rise by the end of the century.
If greenhouse gas emissions can be rapidly reduced, sea level rise can range from 4 to 37 cm. It is worth noting that if the longer-term time span, the difference between normal carbon emissions and emission reductions will be greater.