Mobile phone industry ice and fire: A shares continue to revel in shipments are difficult to optimistic

Under the outbreak, the domestic mobile phone industry is staged a real-life version of the “ice and fire.” On the one hand, mobile phones and 5G industrial chain stocks in the A-share collective carnival, mobile phone companies piled out 5G new products, creating a prosperous scene; CICC is directly lowering its full-year shipment forecast for domestic smartphones in 2020, and domestic smartphone shipments are facing a three-year decline.

Mobile phone industry ice and fire: A shares continue to revel in shipments are difficult to optimistic

Some mobile phone dealers told the Securities Times reporter: “Now the mobile phone business is getting harder and harder to do.” “

Dealers shout that business is hard to do

Industry cold and warm, from the dealer can see a spot. Many industries are in the midst of a good year of development, dealers can make money while they lie down, and when the environment is bad, they may even struggle. So, what is the status quo in the mobile phone industry?

Mr. Yan is the general manager of a mobile phone chain in a fourth-tier city in Jiangsu Province, which has been operating mobile phone sales in the region since 2014 and has been operating more than 10 direct stores. “During the Spring Festival, we closed all our stores from the beginning of the second day and closed their doors until February 24th, when sales were almost stagnant, with only a small number of customers buying mobile phones via WeChat and other lines. The cost of rent is expected to be nearly a million dollars as a result of the outbreak. Mr. Yan told the Securities Times reporter, now the mobile phone industry is becoming more and more difficult to do, prices are more and more transparent, dealers generally not high profits. In Apple’s mobile phone, for example, the gross profit margin is about 2% to 3%. Of course, different mobile phone profit margins vary, and now mobile phone replacement very fast, and the mobile phone industry purchase sub-rules are to give money to the goods, not credit, do not return. This has led to a number of mobile phone dealers facing greater potential inventory risk.

What if the product is not sold? In the face of the reporter’s question, Mr. Yan helplessly said: “sell not to deal with their own, price reduction or other means can be.” “

Mr. Zhong had been engaged in mobile phone sales-related business in Electronic Street for nearly a decade, when he rented a small shop in Huaqiang North, Shenzhen. In October 2019, Mr. Zhong chose to return to his home city in the fifth-tier city to run an online consumer electronics store. “The original mobile phone can earn at least two or three hundred, now generally can earn 50 to 80 yuan, at home to open their own online shop at least rent transportation costs no, but also to do some other business.” “

In Shanghai Meilin, one of Shenzhen’s old business districts, a few years ago a street almost 30 meters apart there is a mobile phone retail store, more than a dozen mobile phone retail stores around Meicun Road dense distribution, now mobile phone retail stores have plummeted to less than five.

February 24, the Securities Times reporter on the spot visit to Huaqiang North several major mobile phone products trading city found that the current Seg electronic trading market, tongti communication market, flying market, etc. are not officially open, business hours to be determined.

Guo Mingyu, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, points out that shipments in China’s mobile phone market fell by 50 to 60 percent during the 2020 Spring Festival, leading to nearly 60 million handsets in stock.

Decline in shipments for the year

Alarm sings

According to the “January 2020 domestic mobile phone market operation analysis report” released by The China Xintong Institute, the total volume of domestic mobile phone market shipments in January was 2.0813 million units, down 38.9% YoY. Since June 2019, shipments from the domestic mobile phone market have fallen for eight consecutive months from a year earlier. In January, 346,000 2G mobile phones, 150.3 million 4G mobile phones, 5G mobile phones 5465,000, 5G mobile phones accounted for 26%.

Affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, february mobile phone shipments may be more obvious, because during the Spring Festival all the country’s physical mobile phone sales stores have been closed, only a small number of online mobile phone transactions, so many companies made it clear that the first quarter sales target can not be achieved.

Apple expects to meet its revenue target in the first quarter of 2020. Apple’s earnings report at the end of January forecast first-quarter revenue of between $63 billion and $67 billion. In early February, all of Apple’s stores in China began to close extensively until February 15th, when some of Apple’s direct stores reopened.

“There is no denying that the outbreak will have an impact on the company. In the first quarter, the outbreak challenged the mobile phone market, but the arrival of 5G and the long-term development of the smartphone market has not changed the basic disk. “OPPO related to the person in charge of the Securities Times reporter said.

Xiaomi founder Lei Jun expects China’s mobile phone sales to fall sharply in the first quarter of this year due to the outbreak, but is expected to rebound strongly in the second and third quarters.

Market research firm Counterpoint expects china’s mobile phone sales to fall by more than 20% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period last year, as the outbreak of new crown pneumonia has had a big impact on the mobile phone market, many mobile phone manufacturers have been affected to varying degrees.

5G End Products

Stacked out

In sharp contrast to the continued decline in mobile phone shipments, it is a hot performance of 5G terminal stacking and capital market-related concept stocks.

February 24th is the “big joy” day for the mobile phone industry. On this day, the industry ushered in three new 5G products. At 3 p.m., Sony held an online launch to officially release the new 5G Xperia, at 5 p.m., Realme moved the X50 Pro launch, which had been scheduled for MWC 2020, to Barcelona for online global release, and at 9 p.m., Huawei released the next-generation folding 5G phone, Mate Xs. If you include the Glorious V30 Pro, released at 1:30 p.m. on February 25, the industry has four new 5G phones.

The “blood-filled resurrection” of mobile phone companies doesn’t stop there. On February 25, at 2:30 p.m., vivo’s sub-brand iQOO next-generation 5G flagship iQOO 3 was officially unveiled. ZTE also announced that in 2020, ZTE will release nearly 10 5G mobile phones worldwide, a total of more than 15 5G terminal products. This was followed by the launch of the Samsung S20 series on February 27th, as well as the launch of the OPPO Find X2, Nubian Red Devil 5G, Huawei P40 Series, OnePlus8 Series, vivo APEX. Shortly before that, Xiaomi and Samsung also released new 5G products.

It is worth mentioning that the mobile phone enterprises have been set for the full year 5G investment and product planning. Apple plans to push 4 5G iPhones in 2020, Xiaomi is expected to release more than 10 5G phones in 2020, realme 2020 will release more than 5G phones, covering from the introduction of thousands of yuan to the flagship full price segment products, including the implementation of the “comprehensive 5G” strategy in China, no longer launch 4G mobile phone products, and launch the “5G-AIoT” dual-drive strategy. OPPO related person in charge told the Securities Times reporter, this year the vast majority of the company’s mobile phones for 5G mobile phones, 2020 will continue to increase 5G research and development and other investment. OPPO founder Chen Yongming said publicly late last year that OPPO will invest 50 billion yuan in research and development over the next three years, including 5G/6G and cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, AR and big data.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology data show that in 2019 China’s 5G mobile phone listed 35 new models, the annual 5G mobile phone shipments of 13.769 million units; The Strategy Analytics study predicts that the number of 5G smartphones will surge by 2020, with 199 million 5G handsets shipped worldwide.

Notably, in the early hours of February 25th, CICC reported that it had cut its 2020 forecast for China’s smartphone shipments to 348 million units to reflect the impact of the outbreak. The outbreak will have a significant impact on the mobile phone industry chain, especially the first quarter results of Android phones, semiconductors and panel manufacturers in the second quarter. In terms of mobile phone brands, the outbreak has had the greatest negative impact on China.

According to the Securities Times reporter, after a record 491 million domestic smartphone shipments in 2017, the decline in 2018 and 2019 was 390 million and 372 million, respectively. With the rise of 5G, many view that in the 5G change rappe and other factors, mobile phone shipments in 2020 is expected to achieve positive growth, and usher edges the consumer electronics year. Now CICC reports that domestic smartphone shipments will decline for the third year in a row in 2020, and by more than 6.5 percent in 2019.

18 Huawei Concept Stocks

Doubled

Influenced by Huawei’s recent launch of the new folding phone Mate Xs, the official launch of the HMS (Mobile Core Services) application market, and Huawei’s official launch of the first HMS mobile phone glory V30 Pro, the a-share Huawei industrial chain and the 5G industrial chain have recently risen.

On February 24, the day of Huawei’s terminal launch, Huawei’s concept stocks were active in the A-share market, with the related index jumping more than 4% and more than 20 concept stocks rising. Previously, Huawei Concept Stake and 5G Concept Shares have been performing strongly for more than a week.

25, affected by the global spread of the epidemic, the previous night’s Sharp decline in Asia-Pacific stock markets, European and American stock markets are panic plunge, VIX panic index within the day the largest gain of nearly 40%. However, this does not affect Huawei, 5G concept shares continue to be strong, the same day Huawei concept plate again up and down the tide, Changshan Beiming, Huatian Technology, Electricity Technology, Shanghai Electric Shares, Wingtech Technology and more than 20 Huawei concept stocks rose and stopped.

According to Wind statistics, Wind Huawei Concept Index and 5G Concept Index Rat Annual Trading (February 3) have risen by 22% and 23% respectively, up 35% and 27% respectively since 2020, and have risen by 46% and 31% respectively since November 1, 2019. The gains were significantly stronger than in other sectors.

From a stock point of view, Chengmei Technology, Huatian Technology, Changchang Communications, Zhaoyi Innovation and other 18 Huawei concept shares have doubled since November last year; The shares of 11 Huawei concept stocks, including Hesheng, have risen more than 50% so far. Among them, the share price of Changchang Mouse has risen 151% so far, and since November last year has risen 203%, and the share price of Changshan Beiming, Huatian Technology and Xingsen Technology Rat has risen by 86%, 82% and 72% respectively.

It is worth noting that some Huawei or 5G concept shares have recently begun to show signs of significant shareholder sell-off. Such as Yangjie Technology, the controlling shareholder Jianshui County Jiejie Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. intends to reduce its holdings of no more than 3% of the shares within six months, its share price has risen 99% since the beginning of the year;