On the morning of March 3, Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategy (WSS) released its latest global smartphone shipment forecast. Based on the latest information and an escalation of the outbreak in more countries and regions, and based on previous versions released on January 30, 2020, Strategy Analytics has again revised down its global and Chinese smartphone shipments forecast for 2020.
The new coronavirus outbreak is beginning to spread to more countries in recent days, said Zhai, director of services at Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategy (WSS). It is clear that the outbreak is entering the second phase – China is largely under control and the situation is improving, but in many other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran, the situation is escalating and worsening.
Global smartphone shipments will be 10% lower than expected in 2020 due to fear and “paralysis” caused by the coronavirus. China’s smartphone shipments will be 15% lower than expected. Smartphone shipments will fall year-on-year in all regions. If the death toll rises in the coming weeks, it could see the stock market fall, the market depressed, and even the industry as a whole.
During the outbreak, there were no winners in the market. All major smartphone makers will be hit, with fewer shipments than had been expected before the outbreak. Smartphone makers face a lack of supply chain capacity, declining consumer confidence and spending. Overseas expansion by Chinese manufacturers will also be delayed.
The above forecast is based on the judgment of Strategy Analytics data analysis: February/March is the peak of panic and fear, and the outbreak will be brought under control after April/May. The smartphone industry as a whole will see a weak first half in 2020 and recover modestly in the second half of 2020.
If the outbreak continues beyond April/May, things escalate further and cause the stock market to plunge, leading to a slowdown in economic growth or a recession, and consumer confidence drops further, it is foreseeable that global smartphone shipments will fall by more than 10%.
Strategy Analytics recommends that terminal manufacturers, operators and supply chain members take bold new steps to stimulate consumer enthusiasm for online shopping to mitigate the impact of the outbreak on offline channels.